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On Wednesday, EUR/USD continued to trade sideways. Even the weak movement seen over the past week is gradually fading. Above the resistance zone of 1.1637–1.1645, the bulls still maintain control of the market. A rebound today from this zone would favor the euro and some growth toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1695. A second close in two days below 1.1637–1.1645 would favor some strengthening of the dollar toward the 50.0% retracement level at 1.1590.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains simple and clear. The last completed upward wave did not surpass the previous peak, and the last downward wave did not break the previous low. Thus, at this time, the trend can still be considered "bullish." The latest labor market data and shifting Fed monetary policy expectations continue to support the bulls.
On Wednesday, the news background was largely absent during the day, and only in the evening did the US release the Fed's minutes. Normally, this report (published two weeks after the meeting itself) does not contain information unknown to traders. This time, however, there was something noteworthy. In particular, traders could see from the document that most FOMC members remain concerned about rising inflation, which has been accelerating since the start of the trade war. Between the two risks (a weaker labor market and higher inflation), Fed policymakers are prioritizing inflation. Recall that in recent weeks, divisions have emerged within the FOMC, something that happens very rarely. Several officials consider a rate cut in September necessary and do not rule out further easing at meetings later this year. The shift in sentiment among part of the committee stems from weak labor market data. However, the majority continue to put price stability first. Jerome Powell will settle this "dispute" on Friday at Jackson Hole.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair turned again in favor of the US dollar and consolidated below 1.1680. This level has been crossed very often lately, so I do not recommend using it as a reference point. The picture on the hourly chart is much more informative and clear. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
Over the last reporting week, professional traders closed 1,058 long positions and 530 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" category remains "bullish" thanks to Donald Trump and is strengthening over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 246,000, compared with 131,000 short positions. The gap is almost twofold. In addition, note the number of green cells in the table above, which show strong growth in euro positions. In most cases, interest in the euro continues to rise, while interest in the dollar declines.
For 27 consecutive weeks, large players have been reducing shorts and increasing longs. Donald Trump's policies remain the most significant factor for traders, as they may cause many problems of a long-term and structural nature for the US. Despite the signing of several important trade agreements, some key economic indicators are showing a decline.
News Calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
Eurozone – Germany Services PMI (07:30 UTC). Eurozone – Germany Manufacturing PMI (07:30 UTC). Eurozone – Services PMI (08:00 UTC). Eurozone – Manufacturing PMI (08:00 UTC). United States – Initial Jobless Claims (12:30 UTC). United States – Services PMI (13:45 UTC). United States – Manufacturing PMI (13:45 UTC). United States – Existing Home Sales (14:00 UTC).
On August 21, the economic calendar is filled with numerous releases, each of which may influence trader sentiment, albeit weakly. The news background may affect market sentiment throughout Thursday.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Sales of the pair were possible on a rebound from 1.1695 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.1637–1.1645 and 1.1590. The first target has been reached. Today, selling is possible on a close below 1.1637–1.1645. Buying can be considered on a rebound from 1.1637–1.1645 on the hourly chart with targets at 1.1695 and 1.1789.
Fibonacci grids are built from 1.1789–1.1392 on the hourly chart and from 1.1214–1.0179 on the 4-hour chart.
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