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The wave pattern on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has not changed for several months, which is encouraging. Even when corrective waves are built, the overall structure remains intact. This makes accurate forecasts possible. It is worth noting that wave patterns do not always look exactly as in textbooks, but the current one looks very solid.
The bullish trend segment continues to develop, while the news background continues to support mostly not the dollar. Donald Trump's trade war continues. His confrontation with the Fed continues. "Dovish" expectations are growing. Trump's "One Big Law" will increase U.S. government debt by 3 trillion dollars, while the president keeps raising and imposing new tariffs. The market rates the results of Trump's first six months very poorly, even though economic growth reached 3% in the second quarter.
At this point, it can be assumed that wave 4 has been completed. If that is indeed the case, the construction of impulse wave 5 has begun, with targets potentially extending as far as the 1.25 level. Of course, the corrective structure of wave 4 could take on a more extended five-wave form, but I am working from the most likely scenario.
The EUR/USD rate was nearly unchanged during Tuesday, but the picture could still change before the day ends. Recall that the U.S. session is the most active. Even if the first 30–60 minutes do not show high volatility, this does not mean the entire session will be quiet. For example, yesterday traders only became active several hours after New York opened.
At first glance, there seems to be little news to drive the market. Yet just an hour ago, the U.S. published its only report of the day—durable goods orders. In July, orders fell 2.8% month-on-month after a 9.4% decline in June. This marks the second consecutive month of disastrous figures. Forecasts had ranged between -2.5% and -4%, so the result matched expectations.
In addition, last night Donald Trump once again caused a "small commotion" by firing the much-scrutinized Lisa Cook, who has been under pressure for several weeks. Cook is accused of falsifying documents to obtain a preferential mortgage, which she applied for back in 2021. It has now surfaced that documents were allegedly forged to secure improper benefits. Trump announced her dismissal, but Cook refused to step down. It then emerged that Trump cannot dismiss Jerome Powell—or any other FOMC governor. The matter will now be reviewed in court, though Trump is unlikely to abandon efforts to remove all FOMC members who do not hold dovish views.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build a bullish trend segment. The wave pattern still depends entirely on the news background tied to Trump's decisions and U.S. foreign policy. The trend targets may stretch as far as the 1.25 level. Therefore, I continue to consider buying with targets near 1.1875, which corresponds to the 161.8% Fibonacci level, and higher. I assume that wave 4 has been completed. Accordingly, it is still a good time for purchases.
Key principles of my analysis:
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