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For GBP/USD, the wave structure continues to indicate the formation of a bullish impulse wave sequence. The wave pattern is almost identical to EUR/USD, as the only real "culprit" remains the U.S. dollar. Demand for it is declining across the market (in the medium term), which is why many instruments are showing nearly identical dynamics. At the moment, wave 4 is assumed to be complete. If this is the case, the instrument's rise will continue within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 could take the form of a five-wave structure, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies—not just trade-related. From the U.S., there is the occasional positive news, but the market constantly has to factor in full economic uncertainty, contradictory decisions and statements from Trump, and the hostile, protectionist stance of the White House. Global tensions are increasing and, as mentioned, the dollar remains the main target, which explains its pressure.
The GBP/USD exchange rate rose by several dozen basis points on Thursday by the start of the U.S. session and is slowly beginning to turn upward in the longer term. One detail is clear from the chart: despite ongoing discussion of its weakness, the U.S. dollar remained broadly stable throughout the summer. Wave 3 of 3 ended in mid-June at 1.3630. Since then, the dollar has both risen and fallen but has mostly traded within the 1.3150–1.3630 range. This is not a small range, and price has spent considerable time there. During that period, wave 3 was completed, wave 4 fully formed, and wave 5 began. And this refers to global waves. However, if the current wave pattern is correct and the news background does not shift by 180 degrees, the dollar is at the very beginning of a new prolonged decline.
The presumed wave 5 has only just begun to form and is unlikely to be much shorter than waves 3 or 1. Almost every day the news background delivers fresh challenges for the dollar. Clouds are gathering over the Federal Reserve. Powell and his colleagues may resist Trump as much as they like, but sooner or later the balance will shift against them, given Trump's methods. What prevents the U.S. president from "finding skeletons in the closet" of each dovish policymaker? Lisa Cook refused to step down under fabricated charges, but another FOMC member might find it wiser not to argue with the president of the world's largest economy. One way or another, U.S. dollar demand will most likely continue to decline. Different types of analysis currently do not contradict one another. If contradictions appeared, an alternative scenario could be considered—but there are none at this point.
The GBP/USD wave pattern remains unchanged. The market is in a bullish, impulsive phase of the trend. Under Donald Trump, markets can still expect numerous shocks and reversals that may significantly affect the wave structure, but for now, the base scenario remains intact. Targets for the bullish phase of the trend are now around 1.4017. At this stage, I assume wave 4 is complete. Wave 2 within 5 may also be complete. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target at 1.4017.
Key principles of my analysis:
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