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For GBP/USD, the wave pattern continues to indicate the construction of an upward impulse structure. The wave picture is almost identical to that of EUR/USD, since the only "culprit" remains the dollar. Demand for it is falling across the market (in the medium term), so many instruments are showing nearly the same dynamics. At present, wave 4 is presumably complete. If this is indeed the case, the instrument's upward move will continue within impulse wave 5. Wave 4 may take on a five-wave form, but this is not the most likely scenario.
It should be remembered that much in the currency market now depends on Donald Trump's policies — not only trade-related. Occasionally, some positive news comes out of America, but the market constantly keeps in mind the total uncertainty in the economy, Trump's contradictory decisions and statements, and the hostile, protectionist stance of the White House. Global tensions are rising, and, as I noted, the main target of all this is the dollar. That is why it keeps "taking the hits."
The GBP/USD rate on Friday fell by nearly the same amount as it had risen the day before. Yesterday I expected the corrective wave to be complete, but on Friday it became clear that even the lack of news flow did not prompt buyers to continue active moves for a second day in a row. A sideways trend is beginning to form, which means the waves effectively stop working. At this point, the presumed wave 2 looks fairly complete, so a new rise in quotes can be expected. However, as long as the sideways phase continues, GBP/USD will not show any growth.
There was no news from the UK today, nor throughout the week. In the U.S., a few hours ago, the PCE index, which reflects changes in core consumer prices, was released. As expected, it rose by 0.3% month-over-month, which is a completely normal figure and did not justify higher demand for the dollar. Personal income and spending also matched forecasts. Therefore, no news overnight, no news in the morning, and neutral U.S. statistics in the afternoon. Yet, the dollar has been rising almost the entire day.
Taking all this into account, I believe that now the market is waiting for more significant events that could pull participants out of their current stupor.
The wave pattern for GBP/USD remains unchanged. We are dealing with an upward impulse segment of the trend. Under Donald Trump, the markets may face a huge number of shocks and reversals that could seriously affect the wave picture, but for now the main scenario remains intact. The targets of the upward segment are now located around 1.4017. At present, I assume that the construction of downward wave 4 is complete. Wave 2 in 5 may also be complete. Therefore, I recommend buying with a target of 1.4017.
Basic principles of my analysis:
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