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By the end of last Friday, US stock indices closed lower. The S&P 500 fell by 0.64%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped by 1.15%. The industrial Dow Jones lost 0.20%.
Given yesterday's holiday, many stock indices traded in a narrow range. Asian indices fluctuated between small gains and losses, while US and European stock index futures declined slightly. This morning, gold surpassed the $3,500 per ounce mark, reaching a record high amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut this month.
The US dollar index rose for the first time in six days, while the Treasury yield curve moved higher as trading resumed after the Monday holiday. The 10-year yield rose by two basis points to 4.25%. Oil prices also advanced ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting.
Following last Friday's sell-off in technology stocks on Wall Street, this month's equity rally faces a serious test: data on employment, inflation, and the Fed's rate decision will be released over the next three weeks. Tensions around tariffs and questions about Fed independence also add to market risks this month, historically the weakest of the year.
As a Fed rate cut in the US looks increasingly likely, capital is expected to continue flowing into other global markets. It is no surprise that today traders' attention shifted to gold, a safe-haven asset in times of political and economic instability, which also tends to benefit from lower rates. The precious metal has gained more than 30% this year, becoming one of the most dynamic major commodities. The prospect of rate cuts and growing concerns about the Fed's future have given new momentum to precious metals.
In Japan, 10-year bonds rose after the strongest auction since 2023. The yen fell by 0.5% against the dollar after Deputy BOJ Governor Ryozo Himino's speech offered no clues on the future direction of interest rates.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump stated that India proposed to lower its tariffs after the US imposed 50% duties as punishment for the South Asian country's purchases of Russian oil last week. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping also held a brief meeting in Beijing.
As for the technical picture of the S&P 500, the main task for buyers today will be to break through the nearest resistance level of $6,457. This would allow for further upside and open the way toward the next level at $6,473. An equally important goal for bulls will be to keep control over $6,490, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In case of a downside move amid weakening risk appetite, buyers will need to step in around $6,441. A breakout there would quickly push the instrument back to $6,428 and open the road toward $6,414.
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