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While markets and traders await new eurozone inflation data—which is likely to remain at 2.0%, in line with the ECB's target—Martin Kocher, the new Austrian member of the European Central Bank's Governing Council, made a series of statements yesterday, advocating a cautious approach in making the next decision on interest rates.
Kocher's position, emphasizing prudence, reflects the general sentiment among part of the ECB representatives concerned about the potential consequences of U.S. tariff policy. Given the instability of the global economy and persistent recession risks in the eurozone, any sharp changes in rates could negatively affect the region's growth outlook.
Kocher also stressed the importance of considering wage data when making decisions on interest rates. Rising wages could increase inflationary pressure, requiring a stronger response from the ECB. However, according to Kocher, clearer signals from the labor market are needed before any action is taken.
"There are differing views on the current interest rate level," Kocher said in an interview. "But many Council members advocate caution in the coming weeks, and I certainly share this view."
This month, Kocher replaced Robert Holzmann, a hawkish ECB policymaker, on the ECB's Council. Most experts expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged at its next meeting in September.
Nevertheless, despite the expected pause on interest rates, debates about the future course of monetary policy in the eurozone remain tense. Economic data are sending mixed signals. Today, new inflation figures are due, and with inflation close to the ECB's 2% target, its stability at this level will likely allow the regulator to maintain its wait-and-see stance, which could support the euro's outlook.
As for the current technical picture of EUR/USD, buyers now need to regain control over the 1.1715 level. Only then will a test of 1.1750 become possible. From there, the pair could move toward 1.1780, though doing so without support from major players will be difficult. The most distant target would be the 1.1820 high. In case of a decline, I expect significant buying interest only around 1.1685. If there is no support there, it would be better to wait for a test of the 1.1655 low or to open long positions from 1.1630.
As for the current technical picture of GBP/USD, pound buyers need to regain the nearest resistance at 1.3550. Only then will the pair be able to aim for 1.3575, above which it will be difficult to move higher. The most distant target would be the 1.3590 level. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to take control of 1.3515. If successful, a breakout of this range would deliver a serious blow to the bulls' positions and push GBP/USD toward 1.3485, with a potential move down to 1.3465.
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