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The current wave structure for EUR/USD remains straightforward, despite horizontal movement over the past few weeks. The charts show that, while the wave pattern has become slightly more complex, it is still simple and clear overall. Therefore, I continue to expect the euro to rise. What events could support buyers?
Let's start with the European Central Bank meeting, which traditionally takes place on Thursday. What's noteworthy about this meeting? In reality, not much. At the last meeting in July, the ECB decided not to change interest rates for the first time in a year. At the September meeting, there's a 99% probability the same decision will be made.
The ECB has managed to bring inflation down to its target, so further monetary easing isn't required. To be more precise, additional easing may only be needed if Eurozone inflation slows further below 2% year-over-year. Since the last few months have actually seen a slight uptick in the consumer price index, there is no reason to expect a new round of monetary stimulus.
This is great news for the euro, especially as, in the same month, the Federal Reserve is 99% likely to resume its monetary easing cycle, which was paused back in 2024. US inflation is also rising, but for the Fed, this no longer matters much, since the labor market has been cooling for four consecutive months. So we get a global "turnaround": the ECB will hold rates steady while the Fed will cut.
If demand for the US dollar has been under pressure due to Donald Trump's trade war since January 2025, then September's serious divergence between the Fed and the ECB's monetary policy will be another reason for markets to sell the dollar. This fully aligns with the current wave pattern.
Other events, such as Germany's industrial production and inflation, will likely be of little interest to the market. The US dollar remains in a precarious position, despite a three-week pause.
Based on my analysis, EUR/USD continues building an upward trend segment. The wave structure still depends entirely on news driven by Trump's decisions and US foreign policy. The trend targets may reach as high as the 1.25 area. Therefore, I continue to favor buys with targets around 1.1875 (the 161.8% Fibonacci level) and higher. I assume wave 4 is complete, so now is a good time to buy.
The GBP/USD wave structure is unchanged. We are in a bullish, impulsive phase of the trend. Under Trump, markets may see many shocks and reversals that could strongly impact the wave picture, but for now, the working scenario is intact. The targets for the bullish move are now around 1.4017. I believe the downward wave 4 is complete; wave 2 in 5 may also be complete or near completion. Thus, I recommend longs with a target at 1.4017.
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