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Gold is showing moderate gains during the day, pausing near record highs reached earlier on Tuesday, though prices remain below the round level of 3700. Bulls have taken a breather after a sharp surge to new historic highs, preparing for potential changes in central bank policies. However, downward potential remains limited due to fundamentally supportive factors for the yellow metal.
Strengthening confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week is pushing the U.S. dollar close to yearly lows, which in turn boosts demand for this non-yielding precious metal. In addition, rising geopolitical risks amid the intensifying Russia–Ukraine conflict are driving capital into safe-haven assets such as gold.
Traders have raised expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary easing after the release of weak U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for August. According to CME Group's FedWatch tool, the probability of three rate cuts this year is viewed as very high.
In the U.S. Senate, a vote was held to confirm Stephen Miran, an aide to President Donald Trump, to the Fed's Board of Governors. This decision came after a federal appeals court barred Trump from dismissing Fed Chair Lisa Cook, and just ahead of the FOMC meeting. As a result, the Fed's dovish rhetoric continues to pressure the dollar, thereby supporting gold.
Geopolitical developments are also providing support. The escalation of the Russia–Ukraine conflict is limiting downside pressure on gold prices. In response to Israel's strike on Hamas leaders in Doha on September 9, an emergency summit of Arab and Islamic states was convened. In a joint statement, participants called for coordinated measures to suspend Israel's UN membership.
From a technical perspective, the daily RSI remains well above the 70 level, signaling extreme overbought conditions and warranting caution ahead of further gains. Accordingly, XAU/USD may struggle to extend momentum beyond the round level of 3700.
However, any significant corrective decline is likely to attract new buyers and find strong support around 3658. Further selling that pushes prices below the horizontal zone of 3630–3632 would bring gold toward the 3610–3600 level. A convincing break below the round level of 3600 would open the way to deeper losses, exposing the psychological level of 3500, with intermediate support near 3578, 3560, and 3540.
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