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Yesterday's bullish impulse in the single currency proved to be weak. The price tried to move further away from the MACD line after breaking above it, but by the end of the day, the upper shadow was larger than the candle body. The Marlin oscillator stalled at the neutral zero line, and this morning even hinted at a reversal downward.
The price is likely to remain in a sideways trend until the U.S. employment data is released on Friday. Even a consolidation below the MACD line (1.1708) would not be a signal for a decline toward the target of 1.1605; the market is simply waiting for Friday's data. A similar situation occurred a month ago, when the euro began to move only after the release of employment figures (green arrow). This time, however, the movement may be downward with a target of 1.1495.
On the four-hour chart, the price has stalled at the balance line. The Marlin oscillator remains in positive territory but is moving horizontally close to the line. A consolidation above the MACD line (1.1774) would signal a further rise to 1.1914, but the probability of this scenario has decreased, raising the possibility of a false breakout. We are waiting for the news on Friday.
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