02.10.202507:08 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What to Pay Attention to on October 2? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Macroeconomic Report Analysis:

Very few macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Thursday, and none of them are considered significant. There are no reports planned in the UK or Germany. In the eurozone, only the unemployment rate will be published, and in the U.S., weekly jobless claims are scheduled. All of these reports are considered secondary and are likely to trigger only a mild market reaction. As a result, both currency pairs, which have recently shown lackluster movements, may experience low volatility and range-bound behavior today.

Fundamental Events Analysis:

Very few fundamental events are expected on Thursday — just a few speeches from European Central Bank and Federal Reserve officials. However, it's worth noting that numerous ECB and Fed representatives gave interviews on Monday and Tuesday, which had absolutely no noticeable effect on the movement of major currency pairs. Thus, today's remarks are unlikely to have a significant impact on the euro or the dollar.

The market remains tense and cautious. It is anticipating developments around the U.S. government shutdown, as well as labor market and unemployment data reports that may not be published due to the same shutdown. This uncertainty leaves traders nervous and frequently hesitant to enter new positions.

General Conclusions:

On this penultimate trading day of the week, both EUR/USD and GBP/USD may continue to move upward. The British pound has completed its downtrend, and the euro likely has too — even though it hasn't broken through the trendline yet. For EUR/USD, the key trading area to watch is 1.1745–1.1754. For GBP/USD, active trading opportunities are found near 1.3466–1.3475. Both levels can serve as starting points for short-term tactical decisions depending on price action behavior around those zones.

Key Trading System Rules:

1. The strength of a signal is determined by how quickly the signal forms (rejection or breakout of a level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If false signals triggered two or more trades at the same level, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. During a flat (sideways market), false signals are common or nonexistent. Either way, it's best to stop trading at the first sign of range-bound movements.
4. Trades should be opened between the start of the European session and the middle of the U.S. session. All trades must be manually closed after that time.
5. On the 1H time frame, MACD indicator signals should be used only during trending markets and when supported by a trendline or channel.
6. If two levels are too close to each other (5 to 20 pips apart), treat them as a single support or resistance zone.
7. Once a trade moves 15-20 pips in the desired direction, the Stop Loss should be moved to breakeven.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and resistance price levels: Targets to consider when opening buy or sell trades. Potential take-profit levels can be placed near them.

Red lines: Trendlines or channels indicating the current market direction and preferred trading bias.

MACD (14,22,3) indicator: Histogram and signal line used as a secondary signal generator.

Important speeches and news reports (always listed in economic calendars) can have a strong impact on currency movement. Therefore, during such releases, it is advisable to either trade with extreme caution or exit the market altogether to avoid sharp reversals against the prior trend.

Note for beginners: Not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and adhering to solid money management principles is the key to long-term success in forex trading.