03.10.202512:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: The Dollar Rises Amid Absence of U.S. Labor Market Statistics

The U.S. dollar strengthened amid the absence of labor market statistics. Concerns that the government shutdown and suspension of federal operations would delay the release of key fundamental data have been confirmed. Yesterday, the weekly jobless claims report was not published, and today we are unlikely to see unemployment and nonfarm payrolls figures for September. This delay undoubtedly adds extra uncertainty to financial markets. Investors and analysts are deprived of timely labor market information, which is critical for assessing the current state of the economy and forecasting its future trajectory. Normally, these data are used for investment decisions and strategy adjustments.

Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stated that new data from his institution indicate that the labor market remains stable, which contributed to the dollar's strengthening, as traders are unlikely to see any other statistics in the near term. "I think this indicates a certain stability in the labor market, and I think the underlying economy is still growing fairly steadily," Goolsbee said in an interview on Thursday.

Fed officials remain divided over how much further interest rates need to be cut this year: some are more concerned about labor market weakness, while others focus on high inflation. Forecasts released after last month's policy meeting showed that officials expect two more rate cuts in 2025.

Goolsbee added that officials may turn to alternative data sources in the absence of official government statistics during the shutdown, pointing to analysis by the Chicago Fed suggesting that the unemployment rate in September likely remained unchanged. He reiterated that rates can only be reduced significantly if officials are confident that inflation is moving back toward the Fed's 2% target.

Current EUR/USD Technical Picture: Buyers now need to push above 1.1745. Only then will a test of 1.1790 become possible. From there, the pair could move to 1.1820, though doing so without support from large market players will be difficult. The most distant target is the 1.1845 high. In case of a decline, I expect significant buying activity near 1.1710. If no strong buyers appear there, it would be better to wait for a retest of the 1.1680 low or consider opening long positions from 1.1650.

Current GBP/USD Technical Picture: Buyers need to break through the nearest resistance at 1.3450. Only then will a move toward 1.3500 be possible, though breaking higher will be quite challenging. The furthest target is the 1.3555 level. In the event of a decline, bears will attempt to retake control of 1.3400. If they succeed, a breakout of this range will deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and push GBP/USD down to the 1.3365 low, with the potential to extend toward 1.3325.