18.12.202518:49 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

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At present, the GBP/JPY pair has entered a phase of bullish consolidation, remaining stable above the round level of 208.00 amid the upcoming interest rate decisions by the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan.

Later today, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision, while on Friday the results of the Bank of Japan's two-day monetary policy meeting are expected to be published. After the pause in November, it is assumed that the Bank of England may move toward cutting rates amid signs of easing inflationary pressures. This backdrop is reinforced by a rise in the UK unemployment rate to the highest levels seen since 2021, as well as a slowdown in wage growth to lows of more than three years. This confirms the need for further monetary policy easing by the UK central bank.

These expectations sharply contrast with the growing anticipation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan on Friday, which is viewed as a supportive factor for the Japanese yen. Against a backdrop of generally weaker sentiment in equity markets, the strengthening of the Japanese yen gains safe-haven status and restrains the growth of the GBP/JPY pair. However, supporters of the Far Eastern currency prefer to wait for additional signals regarding the future policy of the Bank of Japan before taking new steps, as they fear a deterioration in the country's financial position.

Thus, to obtain better trading opportunities and understand the further movement of the market, attention should be paid to the Bank of England's decision today and, tomorrow, to the comments by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda during the press conference following the meeting. These could significantly influence the short-term dynamics of the Japanese yen and set the direction for the currency pair. At the same time, divergent expectations regarding the approaches of the two central banks require caution from market participants when attempting to open new positions in favor of further growth in the GBP/JPY pair.

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