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The Federal Reserve is firmly committed to waiting for the next batch of economic data before making any decisions on monetary policy. The next meeting of the US central bank is scheduled for January 28, and by that time, new reports on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation will be released. This trio of reports will determine the FOMC's decision on interest rates.
In my view, the Fed may opt for a fourth consecutive easing in January, which would undoubtedly weigh on the US dollar. The November labor market data do not allow for conclusions about recovery. The unemployment rate is rising, and the number of jobs created is too low to halt the increase in unemployment and announce a recovery in the labor market. Alongside this, inflation has begun to decline, though it may be a one-off, as many retailers ran promotions, discounts, and sales during November amid "Black Friday." However, it is worth acknowledging that the November data block is a clear indication that the current easing is insufficient.
At the same time, Jerome Powell emphasized at the last Fed meeting the need to pause and carefully review all economic reports. He reminded the markets that the effects of monetary policy are not felt immediately. Powell made this statement before the latest data block was released, but I believe he anticipated less-than-flattering data.
His colleague, "dove" Christopher Waller, also supported the need to continue easing, but after a short pause. Waller stated that the current interest rate is 1% above the "neutral zone," but there is no need to rush into easing. According to Waller, haste in this matter is inappropriate, but stopping at current levels is not an option.
Based on all of the above, I am confident that the easing cycle will continue next year, but the Fed's January decision will depend entirely on the December data on the labor market, unemployment, and inflation. If it is deemed appropriate to conduct a fourth consecutive rate cut, I believe that decision will be made.
Based on the conducted analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward section of the trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors for the long-term decline of the US dollar. The targets for the current section of the trend may extend up to the 25 level. The current upward wave formation is beginning to develop, and it is hoped that we are now observing the formation of an impulsive wave set, which is part of a global wave 5. In this case, growth is expected with targets around 1.1825 and 1.1926, corresponding to 200.0% and 261.8% according to Fibonacci.
The wave structure of the GBP/USD instrument has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend section to resume its formation, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.
In the short term, I anticipated the formation of wave 3 or c with targets located around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which corresponds to 76.4% and 61.8% according to Fibonacci. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or c is continuing its formation, and the fourth attempt is underway to break the 1.3450 mark, corresponding to 61.8% according to Fibonacci. The target levels for the movement are 1.3550 and 1.3720.
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