12.01.202600:38 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Iran's economic crisis as the main cause of the revolution

The economic crisis in Iran, if one may put it that way, began roughly 10 years ago. This is a rather vague statement, since it seems to have been ongoing for some 50 years. All this time, the Iranian people have been living on the edge of poverty, and the situation has only worsened year after year. Iran cannot sell its huge oil reserves simply because nobody wants to buy them due to sanctions. Thus, one of the world's potentially richest people has, for decades, barely managed to make ends meet.

However, about 10 years ago, the country's economic situation reached a point at which the Iranian people had nothing left to lose. Annual inflation in Iran is 40% according to official data, but in reality, the food basket and essential goods double in price each year. The national currency, the rial, has depreciated by 30 times over the last 10 years. Real household incomes did not merely decline year after year; they fell catastrophically. And all this despite the country's huge oil reserves in the ground, while the state chose to develop nuclear armament instead of developing the oil industry.

The Iranian people faced an extreme degree of poverty and despair to the point that any ordinary Iranian clearly understood that nothing would change tomorrow or the day after. In addition, a country where gasoline costs much less than water faced a fuel crisis. Hard to believe, but Iranians began buying up gasoline as a "hedge" against inflation. As a result, gasoline shortages occurred not because there was insufficient supply for citizens and the state, but because it was hoarded. Added to this are persistent electricity problems, and global warming has further worsened the water supply situation. Overall, one can say that over the past 10 years, the Iranian people have been teetering on the edge of survival.

Thus, regardless of Donald Trump's motives or what he actually seeks from Tehran, one cannot deny the obvious fact — the incumbent authorities are failing to fulfill their direct duties. Namely: to ensure at least modest economic growth, develop infrastructure, resolve basic provision problems for the population, and create jobs.

Wave picture for EUR/USD:

Based on the analysis, I conclude that the instrument continues to build an upward trend. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant factors in the long-term decline of the U.S. currency. Targets for the current trend section may extend to the 25th figure. The current upward wave set may be complete, suggesting the instrument faces a near-term decline. The trend segment that begins on November 5 could still take a five-wave form, but for now, it is, in any case, a corrective wave.

Wave picture for GBP/USD:

The wave pattern has changed. The downward corrective structure a-b-c-d-e in C of 4 appears complete, as does the entire wave 4. If this is indeed the case, I expect the main trend segment to resume, with initial targets around the 38 and 40 levels.

In the short term, I expected wave 3 or c to form, with targets around 1.3280 and 1.3360, which correspond to the 76.4% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels. These targets have been reached. Wave 3 or C has presumably completed its formation, so a downward wave or a set of waves may be observed in the near term.

Main principles of my analysis:

1. Wave structures should be simple and understandable. Complex structures are difficult to trade and often change.
2. If you are not confident about what is happening in the market, it is better not to enter it.
3. There is never — and can never be — 100% confidence in the direction of movement. Do not forget protective Stop Loss orders.
4. Wave analysis can be combined with other types of analysis and trading strategies.