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Bitcoin may show a serious decline in the coming weeks. Of course, this forecast, like any other, has conditions. But the most important thing is that a sell signal has formed in the virtually only POI area on the daily TF. This signal does not guarantee a strong move in the desired direction, like any other signal. Nevertheless, the probability of a decline in Bitcoin is very high, and the downtrend remains.
Many experts and analysts continue to predict crazy growth for Bitcoin. Only the time horizons in the forecasts change. Recall that last year, everyone forecast Bitcoin at least $200,000; for this year, forecasts were raised to a low of $250,000. However, Ray Dalio, head of the hedge fund Bridgewater Associates, holds a different view. Remember that for Bitcoin to grow, a constant inflow of new capital into the network is required. Demand for the primary cryptocurrency must continuously increase. Thus, without new investors and new money, there will be no growth. Hopes are pinned on central banks around the world, which have enormous capital at their disposal and could use it to form Bitcoin reserves.
Dalio believes that central banks worldwide will not take such a step. The investor thinks Bitcoin is not an attractive means of payment at the highest financial level. All blockchain transactions are public, and in the future, quantum computers could quite possibly break Bitcoin's code. Bitcoin essentially remains a piece of computer code, and everyone knows: what one person created, another can break. It is unlikely that central banks will be interested in an asset that can be hacked, stolen, or devalued by a hacker. Of course, not all investors and experts agree with Dalio. Some object to the possible network-hack argument, noting that, to date, no one has succeeded in doing so. But, admit it, the argument is dubious.
Bitcoin broke the bullish structure on the daily TF and, for the first time in 3 years, began forming a full-fledged downtrend. The two nearest targets (the "bullish" OB in the $98,000–$102,700 area and the "bullish" FVG) have been worked out; now expect a fall to $70,800 (the 50.0% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend). Of POI areas to sell, only the "bearish" FVG on the daily TF, located in the $96,800–$98,000 area, can be highlighted. This pattern was worked out today. Now a sell trade should be accompanied by waiting for various confirmations of the signal.
On the daily TF, a downtrend continues to form. The key selling pattern was and remains the "bearish" Order-Block on the weekly TF. The movement triggered by this signal may not yet be complete. However, the correction in the crypto market may already be over, since Bitcoin has formed a sell signal. On the daily TF for Ether, there are no clear POI areas to sell. On the 4-hour TF, there are none either, so in the near term, one should orient by Bitcoin.
Note the liquidity pool on the daily chart in the form of a trend line. Below that line are Stop Losses and pending sell orders. Those orders are liquidity. We are almost certain that Ether will show a drop below the trend line. The nearest targets — $2,717, $2,618, and $2,400 — remain relevant. And those are only the nearest targets. Ether's downside potential is much greater.
If Ether also removed liquidity from the December 10 high, together with Bitcoin's reaction to the "bearish" FVG, it could be considered a sell signal.
CHOCH – change of character / break of trend structure.
Liquidity – liquidity, traders' Stop Losses that market makers use to accumulate their positions.
FVG – fair value gap. A price area of inefficiency. Price passes such areas very quickly, indicating a complete absence of one side in the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and react to such areas.
IFVG – inverted fair value gap. After returning to such an area price does not get a reaction from it but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order Block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position with the intention of harvesting liquidity to form their own position in the opposite direction.
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