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Bitcoin continues to pull the entire crypto market with it, but now downward rather than upward. Recall that a sell signal formed on the daily TF (in parallel with the weekly TF), which we had been waiting for about a month. Since the fundamental backdrop is not a driver for Bitcoin at the moment, we focus on technical factors. And among the technical factors, there are none indicating Bitcoin will rise in the near term.
In earlier articles, we repeatedly drew traders' attention to two very important facts. First, Bitcoin is not gold, which can rise most of the time. Bitcoin has experienced downtrends, so one should not expect "digital gold" to behave the same way as regular gold. Second, every Bitcoin bull trend ended in a total crash. After the 2013 uptrend, Bitcoin fell by 76%; after the 2017 trend, the decline was 81%; and after the 2021 peak, Bitcoin lost about 74% of its value. At the moment, the downtrend has been forming for only a few months. Thus, both by duration and by historical data, one can assume the decline will continue, and for a long time.
Also, experts who actually analyze the current picture — rather than constantly claiming Bitcoin will rise to astronomical levels this year — point out that the price is below the 365-day moving average. Thus, market sentiment remains "bearish." It is noted that after a drop of roughly $40,000, key indicators did not visit oversold areas. That means the bearish impulse has not yet dried up. All global fundamental factors have long since been priced in by the market, so we see no strong reasons for the downtrend to end.
Bitcoin continues to form a full-fledged downtrend. The two nearest targets (the "bullish" OB in the $98,000–$102,700 area and the bullish FVG) have been worked off; now expect a fall to $70,800 (the 50.0% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend). From POI areas for selling on the daily TF, highlight the bearish FVG located in the $96,800–$98,000 area. This pattern has been worked and received a price reaction. Now a sell trade can be managed/held. On the 4-hour TF, bearish FVGs are forming, from which additional short positions can be opened or used as confirmation of further decline.
On the daily TF, a downtrend continues to form. The key sell pattern was and remains the bearish Order-block on the weekly TF. The move triggered by this signal should be strong and prolonged. The correction in the crypto market may be complete. On the daily TF, a bearish IFVG has formed, which serves as a POI for selling. On the 4-hour TF, Ether received a reaction at the penultimate bearish FVG and resumed its decline. Today, it may react to yet another bearish FVG. Thus, traders had plenty of opportunities to open short positions. The $2,717 and $2,618 decline targets remain relevant — and these are only the nearest targets. Ether's long-term downside potential is much greater.
Note the liquidity pool on the daily chart in the form of a trendline. Below that line sit Stop Loss and pending sell orders, and those orders are liquidity for market makers. We are almost certain Ether will drop below its trendline, just as Bitcoin will drop below its own trendline.
CHOCH – change of character / break of trend structure.
Liquidity – liquidity; traders' Stop Loss orders that market makers use to accumulate their positions.
FVG – Fair Value Gap / area of price inefficiency. Price moves very quickly through such areas, indicating a complete absence of one side of the market. Subsequently, the price tends to return and receive a reaction from such areas.
IFVG – Inverted Fair Value Gap. After returning to such an area, the price does not receive a reaction but impulsively breaks through it and then tests it from the other side.
OB – Order Block. The candle on which a market maker opened a position to take liquidity and form their own position in the opposite direction.
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