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On Tuesday, silver is showing a sharp rebound. The white metal has partially offset losses from last week's correction, attracting investors amid more affordable prices amid technical pressure from position closures and margin liquidations, without a fundamental turnaround.
The rebound underscores the persistent volatility and increased demand for real assets. The macroeconomic backdrop remains decisive: markets continue to price in further Fed easing, which lowers real yields and increases the appeal of precious metals like silver. Kevin Warsh's candidacy for the head of the Fed temporarily boosted the US dollar, but that effect is fading in light of expectations for rate cuts.
Dollar dynamics remain a key factor for silver. The Dollar Index (DXY) is balancing near local highs, restraining silver prices, and potentially hindering rallies. A strengthening dollar typically makes silver more expensive for international investors, potentially limiting interest in purchasing it.
Geopolitical factors are also softening the outlook: reduced tensions in US-Iranian relations and the US-India trade deal are improving risk sentiment, lowering appetite for safe-haven assets, and risking pushing the white metal into a consolidation phase following its surge.
The partial shutdown of the US federal government slows the flow of macro data, increasing uncertainty about short-term economic prospects and leaving silver's price dependent on dollar fluctuations and near-term monetary expectations.
From a technical perspective, prices have shown resilience below the 78.500 level and the 75.202 level, where the 50-day SMA lies. However, oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, but the relative strength index has entered negative territory, confirming the weakness of the bulls. Therefore, buyers should exercise caution.
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