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Today, the EUR/USD pair is holding within a narrow range around the round level of 1.1900, as market participants await the release of the monthly U.S. labor market data before opening significant positions. Ahead of these key indicators, the divergence in monetary policy paths between the U.S. Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank continues to support the pair's upward potential.
Disappointing U.S. retail sales data released on Tuesday strengthened investor speculation about a series of Fed rate cuts over the course of the year. In contrast, after completing a cycle of 12 rate cuts in June last year, the ECB has kept rates unchanged, and unexpectedly strong inflation growth has removed the need for additional stimulus measures.
Concerns about the Fed's autonomy resurfaced when U.S. President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened legal action against his recent nominee for Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, if rates are not lowered. In addition, Fed Chair Stephan Miran emphasized that full central bank independence is unattainable. These factors, together with prevailing risk optimism, are keeping the U.S. dollar stagnant despite hawkish comments from two Fed officials who prefer to pause rate adjustments due to inflation risks.
The fundamental backdrop favors dollar sellers and suggests that the dominant direction for EUR/USD remains upward. Any intraday correction may be viewed as a buying opportunity and is likely to remain limited by the 9-day EMA.
Nevertheless, traders should refrain from making aggressive directional moves ahead of the release of the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report. Together with Friday's U.S. consumer inflation data, this report will determine the trajectory of the Fed's future interest rate decisions. This, in turn, could provide additional momentum for the EUR/USD pair.
From a technical perspective, the pair is trading above all moving averages and above the round 1.1900 level, approaching the upper boundary of the impulse move seen the day before yesterday. Oscillators on the daily chart are positive and far from the overbought zone. All these factors suggest that the path of least resistance for the pair is to the upside. However, if the pair falls below the 20-day SMA, bulls will lose control of the situation.
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