12.02.202618:45 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/JPY: Tips for Beginner Traders on February 12th (U.S. Session)

Trade Review and Trading Advice for the Japanese Yen

The test of the 153.19 level occurred when the MACD indicator was returning from the overbought area, confirming a proper entry point for selling the dollar. As a result, the pair declined by more than 30 points.

Attention will now focus on U.S. jobless claims data and existing home sales figures. Weekly initial jobless claims serve as a kind of barometer for employment conditions. A significant increase in claims may indicate rising layoffs, pointing to a slowdown in economic activity or difficulties in certain sectors. This indicator is highly timely and sensitive to changes, making it an important tool for short-term forecasting.

Existing home sales, in turn, reflect consumer confidence and the availability of mortgage programs. An increase in sales suggests households are ready to make major purchases, which may result from improved financial conditions or attractive lending terms. Strong figures typically support the U.S. dollar.

As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 153.10 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 153.62 (thicker green line on the chart). Around 153.62, I will exit long positions and open short positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 30–35 point move from that level). The pair can be expected to rise today following strong U.S. labor market data.Important: Before buying, make sure that the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just beginning to move upward from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 152.85 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. Growth toward the opposite levels of 153.10 and 153.62 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, I plan to sell USD/JPY after a break of the 152.85 level (red line on the chart), which would lead to a rapid decline. The key target for sellers will be 152.35, where I will exit short positions and immediately open long positions in the opposite direction (targeting a 20–25 point move). Pressure on the pair will return in the event of weak reports.Important: Before selling, make sure that the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just beginning to decline from it.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today in the case of two consecutive tests of the 153.10 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This would limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. A decline toward the opposite levels of 152.85 and 152.35 can be expected.

Chart Explanation:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – estimated Take Profit level or a point to manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – estimated Take Profit level or a point to manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD indicator – when entering the market, it is important to rely on overbought and oversold zones.

Important. Beginner Forex traders should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of major fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade large volumes.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based solely on the current market situation are inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.