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The price test at 1.3635 coincided with the MACD indicator just beginning to move down from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling the pound. As a result, the pair declined to the target level of 1.3607.
Yesterday's UK GDP data for the fourth quarter of 2025 did not meet analysts' expectations. The figures were slightly below the forecast, which, at first glance, could have triggered a negative reaction in the market, especially for the British pound sterling. However, contrary to expectations, there was no significant pressure on the national currency.
Weak data on jobless claims and the U.S. housing market in the afternoon did not pose a problem for buyers of the U.S. dollar either. Despite the reporting indicating some slowdown in key economic sectors, traders demonstrated remarkable resilience.
Today, in the absence of relevant data from the United Kingdom, traders' attention is shifting to statements from Bank of England officials. Comments from Huw Pill, a member of the Monetary Policy Committee, become particularly valuable. His assessments regarding future steps in monetary policy can significantly impact fluctuations in the British pound's exchange rate. Market participants will closely analyze every word from Pill, searching for hints of potential interest rate adjustments. Anticipation of further actions by the BoE signaling a rate reduction is already stimulating activity in the currency market. The British pound is facing issues, and today's statements from Pill may only exacerbate them.
As for the intraday strategy, I will primarily focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy pounds today when the entry point reaches around 1.3619 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3653 (thicker green line on the chart). At 1.3653, I intend to exit the long positions and open shorts in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips back from the level. Expectations for the pound's growth today can only be based on Pill's strong position. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning its upward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3599 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and lead to an upward market reversal. A rise to opposing levels of 1.3619 and 1.3653 can be expected.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell pounds after updating the level to 1.3599 (red line on the chart), which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the 1.3571 level, where I intend to exit shorts and immediately open longs in the opposite direction (anticipating a move of 20-25 pips back from the level). Sellers of the pound will assert themselves in case of poor data. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning its downward movement from there.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell pounds today if there are two consecutive tests of the price 1.3619 when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the opposing levels of 1.3599 and 1.3571 can be expected.
The thin green line represents the entry price at which one can buy the trading instrument;
The thick green line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
The thin red line represents the entry price at which one can sell the trading instrument;
The thick red line represents the approximate price where one can set Take Profit or secure profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
The MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market should be very careful when making entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without setting stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
And remember, for successful trading, it is essential to have a clear trading plan, as outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is inherently a losing strategy for an intraday trader.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
