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The wave structure remains "bearish." The latest completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the most recent upward wave failed to break the previous peak. To shift the trend back to "bullish," the pair needs to consolidate above the last peak at 1.3730 or form two consecutive bullish waves. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, but the news flow from the U.S. has also rarely given traders much reason for optimism. Bulls have regularly received support from Donald Trump and weakness in the U.S. labor market.
On Thursday, the news background was equally negative for both the dollar and the pound. The UK economy once again showed disappointing growth in the fourth quarter, and industrial production volumes fell by nearly 1% month-over-month in December compared to November. However, U.S. labor market data released this week and last week are also unlikely to have strongly encouraged traders to make new purchases of the U.S. dollar. Today, the final important report of the month will be released in the U.S. — inflation. Bulls are hoping for a slowdown to the forecast 2.5%, and the lower the Consumer Price Index falls, the better. Low inflation would bring the FOMC closer to further monetary easing, preventing bears from continuing their attacks. However, a slowdown only to 2.6% or no decline at all would instead help the bears maintain their offensive. The bearish trend still persists.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795 and has since continued declining toward the 1.3369–1.3435 support level. The bearish trend on the hourly chart has not yet ended. A consolidation above 1.3795 would allow expectations for a continuation of the bullish trend toward 1.4020. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
The sentiment among the "Non-commercial" category of traders became more bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators increased by 7,107, while short positions rose by 4,856. The gap between long and short positions now stands at approximately 95,000 versus 108,000 and continues to narrow. In recent months, bears have dominated, but it seems they may have exhausted their potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is directly opposite. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound.
In my view, the pound still appears less "risky" than the dollar. In the short term, the U.S. currency may occasionally see demand in the market, but not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Federal Reserve is forced to pursue monetary easing to curb rising unemployment and stimulate job creation. U.S. military aggression also does not add optimism for dollar bulls.
Economic Calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
U.S. – Consumer Price Index (13:30 UTC).
On February 13, the economic calendar contains only one entry, but an important one. The impact of the news background on market sentiment will be present on Friday, primarily in the second half of the day.
GBP/USD Forecast and Trading Advice:
Selling the pair is possible upon consolidation below the 1.3595–1.3620 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3526–1.3539. Buying positions may be opened upon a rebound from the 1.3595–1.3620 level on the hourly chart, targeting 1.3755.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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