Relevancia 00:00 2026-02-17 UTC--5
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Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:
There are very few macroeconomic reports scheduled for Monday. Essentially, the only report to note is the industrial production report in the Eurozone. This is an interesting report, but not much more than that. In recent years, Europe's industry has faced significant difficulties due to increased competition from China and the trade tariffs and duties imposed by Donald Trump. Therefore, support for the euro from this indicator is not to be expected. In Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States, the event calendars are absolutely empty.
Analysis of Fundamental Events:
Among the fundamental events on Monday, only a speech by Federal Reserve representative Michelle Bowman stands out. After the labor market, unemployment, and inflation data became known, changes in the rhetoric of Monetary Committee members can be anticipated. We believe that the Fed's stance may shift to a more "dovish" one as inflation in the U.S. approaches 2%. A change in rhetoric to a more "soft" stance would be another reason for the market to sell the American currency.
General Conclusions:
During the first trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade very calmly, as there are minimal important events scheduled. The euro can be traded from the area of 1.1899-1.1908 or from the area of 1.1830-1.1837, while the British pound can be traded from the area of 1.3643-1.3652. We still do not see grounds for a rise in the American currency. Volatility today may be low.
Main Rules of the Trading System:
- The strength of the signal is determined by the time it takes to form (rebound or breaking through the level). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
- If two or more trades were opened around a particular level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
- In a flat market, any pair can generate numerous false signals or no signals at all. In any case, it is best to stop trading at the first signs of a flat.
- Trades are opened during the time period between the start of the European session and until the middle of the American session, after which all trades should be manually closed.
- On the hourly timeframe, signals from the MACD indicator should ideally be traded only when there is good volatility and a trend confirmed by a trend line or channel.
- If two levels are too close to each other (ranging from 5 to 20 pips), they should be considered as a support or resistance area.
- After moving 15-20 pips in the correct direction, it is advisable to set the Stop Loss to break-even.
What's on the Charts:
- Support and resistance levels are targets for opening buy or sell trades. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.
- Red lines indicate channels or trend lines that reflect the current trend and indicate the preferred direction for trading now.
- The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and signal line – serves as a supplementary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
- Important speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly influence the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be conducted with maximum caution, or it is advised to exit the market to avoid a sharp price reversal against the preceding movement.
- Beginners trading in the Forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and practicing sound money management are the keys to long-term trading success.
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