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Last Friday, equity indices closed mixed. The S&P 500 rose by 0.05%, while the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.22%. The industrial Dow Jones, meanwhile, added 0.10%.
Today, futures on US indices gained after favourable US inflation data strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates this year earlier than previously expected. However, despite the positive start, today's trading is likely to be characterised by low activity and limited volumes. The reason is coinciding public holidays in the two largest world economies, the US and China. With financial markets in those countries closed, a significant portion of global capital will be temporarily out of circulation, which will inevitably affect liquidity and price action on other venues.
This situation creates a paradox. On the one hand, there are grounds for upside driven by positive macro data and rate-cut expectations. On the other hand, low market activity can result in the absence of a clear trend or even some volatility, since small deal volumes may have a larger impact on prices.
The European Stoxx 600 index rose by 0.3% as bank stocks recovered after last week's sharp drop. NatWest Group Plc shares gained 4% after Citigroup Inc. raised its target price on the British bank. German government bonds and futures on US Treasuries remained steady after US yields on Friday hit their lowest levels since December.
It is obvious that further US rate dynamics will remain in focus as traders are already pricing a possible Fed cut in July. KBC Securities said that after the CPI print, the outlook for equities looks constructive, but added that further dispersion might be observed in the near term as sentiment toward key AI?related sectors remains highly critical.
This week, traders will watch ADP private sector employment data due Tuesday and the minutes of the January Fed meeting on Wednesday. These releases will provide fresh insight into the economy.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $6,871. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a push to a new level at $6,883. An equally important priority for bulls will be control above $6,896, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid waning risk appetite, buyers must reassert themselves around $6,854. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $6,837 and open the path to $6,819.
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