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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair on Wednesday made another reversal in favor of the U.S. dollar and resumed its decline. Today, a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 support level would favor the pound and some growth toward the 1.3526–1.3539 resistance level. A consolidation below the 1.3437–1.3470 level would increase the probability of continued decline toward the next support level at 1.3352–1.3362.
The wave situation remains "bearish." The last completed downward wave broke the previous low, while the last upward wave failed to break the previous high. To reverse the trend back to "bullish," a consolidation above the last peak at 1.3730 or two consecutive bullish waves are required. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, but the news background in the U.S. has also rarely truly pleased traders. Donald Trump regularly provides support to the bulls, but lately the pound has clearly been going through a "losing streak."
Wednesday's news background did not bode well for the pound from the very morning. The Consumer Price Index in the UK slowed to 3%, which increased dovish expectations regarding the Bank of England's monetary policy. In the U.S., three reports were released, and all three turned out stronger than market expectations. Thus, four out of four economic events supported the bears, who took advantage of their luck. The pound has been declining for several weeks now, but I still do not have a firm sense that the U.S. dollar is currently so strong, or that the U.S. news background is so positive. In my view, the pound has simply found itself in an unfortunate set of circumstances. One could also add the absence of strengthening dovish sentiment in the market despite the decline in U.S. inflation. This point is also quite strange. Inflation in America has fallen to 2.4% (which is lower than in the UK), yet the market expects monetary easing from the Bank of England rather than from the Fed.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair rebounded from the 127.2% Fibonacci level at 1.3795 and has since continued declining toward the 1.3369–1.3435 support level. The bearish trend on the hourly chart is not over. A rebound from the 1.3369–1.3435 support level would allow traders to expect a resumption of the bullish trend toward the 1.3495 level. No emerging divergences are currently observed on any indicator.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became slightly less bullish over the last reporting week. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 6,520, while the number of short positions increased by 5,379. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively as follows: 88,000 versus 114,000, and overall it continues to narrow. In recent months, bears have dominated, but it seems they may have exhausted their potential. At the same time, the situation with euro contracts is exactly the opposite. I still do not believe in a bearish trend for the pound under any circumstances.
In my opinion, the pound still looks less "dangerous" than the dollar. That is its main advantage. In the short term, the U.S. currency may periodically enjoy demand in the market. But not in the long term. Donald Trump's policies have led to a sharp decline in the labor market, and the Fed is forced to pursue monetary easing in order to stimulate job creation. U.S. military aggression also does not add optimism for dollar bulls.
News calendar for the U.S. and the UK:
U.S. – Change in Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 UTC).
On February 19, the economic calendar contains only one entry of no particular interest. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Thursday is expected to be absent.
GBP/USD forecast and trading advice:
Selling the pair was possible after price consolidation below the 1.3595–1.3620 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3437–1.3470. The second target has already been almost reached. New sales are possible after a close below 1.3437–1.3470. Buying can be considered after a rebound from the 1.3437–1.3470 level on the hourly chart with targets at 1.3526–1.3539 and 1.3595.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.3470–1.3010 on the hourly chart and from 1.3431–1.2104 on the 4-hour chart.
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