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Today, the GBP/USD pair is stabilizing its losses accumulated over the past three days, holding within a narrow range near the four-week low formed on Thursday. Spot prices are trading around the psychological level of 1.3500 and remain exposed to downside risks.
The British pound continues to show weakness due to growing expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of England at its March meeting. These sentiments are supported by a weak UK labor market report and a slowdown in consumer inflation to an annual low. Combined with a bullish U.S. dollar, this reinforces a negative short-term outlook for the GBP/USD pair.
The minutes of the January FOMC meeting, released on Wednesday, revealed significant disagreements among policymakers regarding the pace and justification of further monetary easing amid concerns about persistent inflation. Some Federal Reserve members noted the possibility of rate cuts if inflation declines, while others warned that premature easing could jeopardize the central bank's 2% inflation target.
Meanwhile, reports that the U.S. military may be ready to strike Iran as early as this weekend are heightening geopolitical risks, strengthening the dollar and fueling its rally. This supports the scenario of continued weekly declines in GBP/USD, where any rebound is seen as an opportunity for more favorable selling.
Today, better trading opportunities may arise following U.S. economic releases: weekly jobless claims, the Philadelphia Fed Business Activity Index, and pending home sales data. Speeches by Federal Reserve officials may add volatility to the dollar and the GBP/USD pair during the U.S. session. However, the main focus should remain on Friday's U.S. PCE report.
From a technical perspective, the pair is attempting to hold above the psychological 1.3500 level after already falling below the 50-day SMA. If prices fail to maintain the 1.3470 level, the next support will be the 200-day SMA. A break below it could accelerate the decline. Oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index remains negative, confirming the weakness of the bulls.
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