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The EUR/USD pair continued its decline on Thursday and secured a close below the 61.8% corrective level at 1.1770, which now allows for expectations of further downside toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.1696. A consolidation above 1.1770 would favor the euro and some growth toward the 50.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1830.
The wave structure on the hourly chart remains simple. The last completed upward wave failed to break the peak of the previous wave, while the new downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend has indeed shifted to bearish. The bulls have taken a pause within what had been a large-scale offensive—one that would have been impossible without Donald Trump—and this pause has dragged on significantly. Trump escalated tensions globally and within the United States to the limit, but in early 2026 discussions about a possible impeachment of the president began to emerge in the market.
On Thursday, the news background was relatively weak, but the only report—initial jobless claims—came in better than expected, once again supporting the bears. I am not sure the bears would have refrained from attacking even without this report, as the dollar's rise had already begun earlier in the day. Nevertheless, the fact remains. In my view, some global factor is behind the current strengthening of the dollar. Let me remind you that after weak labor market data for 2025 and strong figures for January, as well as a decline in U.S. inflation to 2.4%, traders had expected a more dovish stance from the FOMC. However, that did not happen. The Federal Reserve's Board of Governors is still not confident that inflation is slowing toward 2% and prefers to maintain a wait-and-see approach to monetary policy for several more months. This factor may be supporting the dollar, but the dollar has been rising for 10 consecutive days. That seems too much for a single factor, especially considering that the ECB is also not planning to ease policy, despite inflation slowing to 1.7%.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair reversed in favor of the U.S. dollar and declined to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 1.1748. A consolidation below 1.1748 would favor further decline toward the next corrective level of 50.0% at 1.1694. A rebound from 1.1748 would allow the bulls to regain some ground toward the 76.4% Fibonacci level at 1.1813. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the latest reporting week, professional traders opened 16,403 long positions and closed 541 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, and it continues to strengthen over time. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 319,000, while short positions amount to 138,000. This represents more than a twofold advantage for the bulls.
For thirty-three consecutive weeks, major players had been reducing short positions and increasing long positions. Then a "shutdown" began, but now we are observing the same pattern again: professional traders continue to build up long positions. Donald Trump's policy remains the most significant factor for traders, as it creates numerous problems that will have long-term and structural consequences for America—for example, the serious deterioration of the labor market (2025) and a decline in global reputation. Traders are also concerned about a potential loss of Federal Reserve independence in 2026 and Donald Trump's geopolitical ambitions.
News Calendar for the U.S. and the European Union:
On February 20, the economic calendar contains numerous entries, with EU PMIs and U.S. GDP standing out. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Friday may persist throughout the day.
EUR/USD Forecast and Trading Tips:
Selling the pair was possible after a close below 1.1889 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1830. The target was reached. Further selling was possible after a close below 1.1830 with a target of 1.1770. This target was also achieved. These trades may be held open on Friday with a target of 1.1696. Buying will become possible after a consolidation above 1.1770 on the hourly chart with a target of 1.1830.
Fibonacci retracement levels are drawn from 1.1805–1.1578 on the hourly chart and from 1.1919–1.1471 on the 4-hour chart.
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