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The wave structure on the 4-hour chart of EUR/USD has taken on a less desirable appearance, but it does not raise major questions. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend that began in January of last year; only the internal wave structure is periodically being adjusted. In my view, the instrument has completed the formation of the global wave 4 (lower chart). If this assumption is correct, wave 5 is currently unfolding, and it could become quite extended, with targets stretching as high as the 1.25 level.
The internal structure of the presumed wave 5 is not entirely clear (upper chart). The upward wave sequence cannot be considered impulsive due to rather strong corrective waves. Therefore, at this stage, it is interpreted as an a-b-c-d-e structure. However, if wave 5 becomes extended, its internal structure will also turn out to be quite complex. If that is the case, the wave labeling will likely undergo further revisions. In any event, I expect EUR/USD to resume its upward movement, and the corrective a-b-c structure already appears close to completion.
On Monday, EUR/USD remained nearly unchanged overall, although intraday swings were fairly wide. Unfortunately, the moves were not entirely clear or predictable. The new week began with a sharp rise in the euro amid a decline in the dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump raised trade tariffs to 15% on Saturday. However, the dollar's decline was rather modest—just 50 basis points—which were easily recovered during the day. Thus, the overnight drop in the U.S. dollar was understandable, but its subsequent recovery was not.
There was virtually no news background on Monday, apart from Germany's business climate index. Therefore, there were no clear reasons for the market to increase demand for the dollar during the day. It should be recalled that Trump's new tariffs, announced just three hours after the Supreme Court of the United States ruled to cancel last year's global tariffs, effectively amounted to a direct challenge to the American legal system. Trump repeatedly demonstrates that laws do not apply to him, while the legal system repeatedly proves that it can issue verdicts only against ordinary citizens, whereas the president enjoys full immunity.
Earlier, I predicted that even if the court overturned the tariffs, Trump would immediately reintroduce them under another legal basis. The IEEPA contains no explicit mention of tariffs, yet Trump deemed it possible to impose them. Consequently, the U.S. president can rely on virtually any law—even one that does not mention tariffs—to introduce trade duties. That is precisely what happened. If the 1977 IEEPA law does not suffice, there is also the Trade Act of 1974. The key is simply to find a pretext.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair continues to form an upward trend segment. Donald Trump's policies and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain significant long-term factors weighing on the U.S. dollar. The targets of the current trend segment may extend toward the 1.25 level. At present, I believe the pair remains within global wave 5, and I therefore expect higher quotes in the first half of 2026. The corrective a-b-c structure may end at any moment, as it already looks convincing. I believe it is reasonable to look for new buying opportunities targeting approximately 1.2195 and 1.2367, which correspond to 161.8% and 200.0% Fibonacci levels.
On a smaller time frame, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the larger wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such situations do occur. It is important to focus on identifying clear structures on the chart rather than strictly labeling every single wave. At present, the upward wave structure does not raise doubts.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
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