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Today, Tuesday, the USD/CAD pair is breaking above the psychological level of 1.3700. The US dollar is showing moderate strengthening against the Canadian dollar amid ongoing uncertainty regarding US trade policy.
Uncertainty over tariffs intensified after US President Donald Trump warned countries against withdrawing from recently signed trade agreements with the United States following the Supreme Court's cancellation of emergency tariffs. Trump announced the introduction of a universal 15% import duty, which could weaken the US dollar's position against the Canadian dollar.
Geopolitical risks continue to exert influence as well, potentially pushing oil prices up to $67 per barrel and providing support to the commodity-linked Canadian dollar.
On Sunday, The New York Times reported that Trump is considering options for limited airstrikes against Iran, adding that if diplomacy or initial targeted operations fail, he is preparing a larger-scale attack in the coming months to force Iran to abandon its nuclear program. Canada is a major oil exporter, and rising oil prices traditionally have a positive effect on the Canadian dollar.
To identify better trading opportunities, attention should be paid to Canada's GDP data on Friday, where the consensus expects growth of 0.1% in December compared to the previous period. Weak figures could increase pressure on the Canadian dollar and push the USD/CAD pair higher in the short term.
From a technical perspective, if the pair manages to break above the 50-day SMA, the next target will be the psychological level of 1.3800, followed by the very important 200-day SMA. If bulls manage to break above it, they will gain greater chances of success. It is worth noting that the 200-day SMA is sloping downward, indicating the pair's broader directional bias. Oscillators on the daily chart are mixed, while the Relative Strength Index has moved into positive territory, supporting bullish strength, at least in the near term.
The nearest support for the pair is the 9-day EMA around 1.3670, followed by the 20-day SMA around 1.3630. If the pair fails to hold these levels, it may accelerate its decline toward the February low.
In the table below, the percentage change of the US dollar against a basket of currencies for today is shown. The US dollar has shown the greatest strength against the Japanese yen.
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