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At the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.7040, posting a 0.20% decline on the day after failing to hold above the psychological level of 0.7100 on Monday. The pair is undergoing a correction from a multi-month high as traders seek to reduce risk exposure ahead of a series of important macroeconomic releases in Australia, China, and the United States.
The publication of Australia's January Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday will be the main catalyst of the week. The consensus forecast expects headline inflation to rise 3.7% year-over-year, slightly below the previous 3.8%, while the Trimmed Mean measure is projected to remain at 3.3%.
These figures deserve close attention following the recent 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which brought the rate to 3.85%. The central bank justified the increase by citing persistent inflationary pressures and stronger-than-expected private demand, signaling its readiness to maintain a restrictive policy stance in the absence of easing price pressures.
In the United States, the focus has shifted to trade developments. After the Supreme Court blocked part of the previously imposed tariffs, President Donald Trump threatened a new 15% global tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act, once again raising concerns about escalating trade tensions and negatively affecting cyclical currencies such as the Australian dollar, which is vulnerable to fluctuations in global trade.
As a result, the AUD/USD pair is balancing under the influence of opposing factors: the potential for tighter monetary policy in Australia is clashing with global trade uncertainty and sustained demand for the U.S. dollar. Australian inflation data will determine whether the pair stabilizes above the psychological level of 0.7000 or whether the correction from 0.7100 turns into a prolonged consolidation.
From a technical perspective, oscillators on the daily chart remain positive. However, if the pair fails to hold the psychological 0.7000 level, bulls will lose their near-term advantage. It is also worth noting that the 200-day SMA is sloping upward, indicating that the broader trend remains bullish.
In the table below, the percentage change of the Australian dollar against major currencies today is shown, with the Australian currency posting its strongest gains against the Japanese yen.
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