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The test of the price at 1.3481 occurred when the MACD indicator had moved significantly below the zero mark, which I believe limited the pair's downward potential. For this reason, I did not sell the pound. The second test at 1.3481 coincided with the MACD being in the oversold area, leading to the realization of Scenario #2: buying the pound. As a result, the pair rose to the target level of 1.3535.
The market's sharp reaction was driven by recent statements from U.S. President Donald Trump, which evidently did not have the expected impact on the dollar's exchange rate. On the contrary, the American currency declined against the British pound. It seems that Trump's pre-election slogan, "Making America Great Again," is losing its former strength and persuasiveness. Investors are likely growing fatigued from such promises that are not always backed by concrete actions or clear plans. The absence of positive news or significant economic shifts that could support the dollar has led market participants to reassess their positions, favoring other assets.
As for economic data from the UK, no new data is expected in the first half of the day today. The lack of fresh economic indicators means the pound's current movement is largely influenced by external factors, such as the dynamics of the dollar exchange rate. For this reason, further growth in GBP/USD is expected.
Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.
Scenario #1: I plan to buy the pound today when it reaches an entry point around 1.3530 (green line on the chart), targeting a move to 1.3553 (thicker green line on the chart). At the 1.3553 level, I intend to exit the long positions and immediately sell back on the pullback (aiming for a 30-35-pip move in the opposite direction from the level). Expecting growth for the pound today can continue the trend. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just beginning to rise from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the pound today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.3513 when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upwards. One can expect growth to opposing levels of 1.3530 and 1.3553.
Scenario #1: I plan to sell the pound today after the level at 1.3513 (red line on the chart) is reached, which will trigger a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be the level of 1.3492, where I intend to exit the sales and immediately buy back in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Sellers of the pound will emerge after the weekly high is updated. Important! Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just beginning to decline from it.
Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the pound today if the price tests 1.3530 twice in a row, as the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downwards. One can expect a decline to opposing levels of 1.3513 and 1.3492.
Beginner traders in the Forex market must make entry decisions very cautiously. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.
Remember, to trade successfully, you must have a clear trading plan, as presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are a losing strategy for intraday traders.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
