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The only way for the S&P 500 to move higher is for it to go down first, Goldman Sachs believes. According to the bank's analysis, in 22 prior cases since 2000 in which WTI increased by about 10% in a single session, the broad index decreased by an average of 0.24% the next day, but then increased by an average of 3.57% over the following month. Brent spikes produced similar patterns.
The Middle East conflict created an exception. Instead of collapsing, the S&P 500 registered a minor wobble at the open and then climbed decisively. The rally was led by energy and technology stocks. The former benefited clearly from the oil rally, while Big Tech regained favor as investors worried about the outlook for the US economy and markets.
Some argue that Brent rising above $90/bbl would hit corporate profits and push inflation expectations higher, forcing the Fed to keep interest rates elevated longer than currently priced. As a result, the rotation reversed: small-cap names were aggressively sold, and money flowed back into tech giants.
S&P 500 vs MSCI World ex-US
Interestingly, the reversal was not only domestic but international. Year-to-date, the MSCI World ex-US has outperformed the S&P 500 by about 9 percentage points. In 2025, that gap was 12 points — the largest divergence in favor of global equities since 1993. It is typically thought that a Brent/WTI spike hurts net importers like Europe and Japan more than the US, so those markets had attracted capital earlier this year. The return of US exceptionalism flipped the flows from East back to West.
In 2022, amid the outbreak of war in Ukraine, oil spiked to an inflation-adjusted roughly $140/bbl. During the 2008 global financial crisis, the real cost of crude approached the $200 mark. Today, it would take not just a short burst to those levels but a sustained stay there to inflict real damage on the US economy.
Every cloud has a silver lining. The Middle East conflict risks plunging Europe and Japan into an energy crisis and reviving the theme of US exceptionalism — excellent news for the S&P 500.
Technically, the daily chart shows that the S&P 500 index tested the lower edge of the fair-value range (6,800–7,000). The bears' failure to follow through shows weakness. Nevertheless, a renewed assault could succeed and allow short positions to be built. Conversely, buyers should consider entries on a breakout above the resistance levels of 6,910 and 6,955.
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