03.03.202611:15 Forex Analysis & Reviews: EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Relevancia 03:00 2026-03-04 UTC--5

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The euro remains under pressure, as the sharp rise in oil prices amid the war between the United States and Israel and Iran increases the risk of accelerating inflation in Europe. Global oil prices gained nearly 8% from Monday's levels following Tehran's threats to attack tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz — a key maritime corridor through which around 20% of global crude oil supplies are transported. On Monday, Fox News reported at least two attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran.

Against this backdrop, representatives of the European Central Bank (ECB), including Governing Council member and Governor of the Bank of France Francois Villeroy de Galhau, stated during Tuesday's European session that, in their view, the impact of the Middle East conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran on the French economy would be limited. At the same time, ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane warned on Tuesday that a prolonged conflict could trigger a significant rise in inflation while also causing a sharp decline in eurozone output.

Key statements from ECB officials:

"A prolonged conflict could lead to a significant rise in inflation."
"At the same time, it could also cause a sharp drop in output in the euro area."
"In the short term, the surge in energy prices is putting upward pressure on inflation."
"The scale of the shock largely depends on the magnitude and duration of the conflict."
"Excluding any major shocks, the eurozone economy is growing within its potential."
"In this situation, I see no reason to risk inflation."

Recent comments by ECB President Christine Lagarde, made on February 26 during a speech before the European Parliament's Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs (ECON), indicate her confidence that inflation will stabilize around the 2% target in the medium term. Lagarde emphasized: "I am indeed convinced that we should stick to a data-dependent approach," thereby reaffirming that the ECB's future policy path will depend on incoming economic data.

Meanwhile, worsening market sentiment due to the war in the Middle East has increased demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset. Domestically, rising oil prices are heightening inflation risks in the United States, which market participants believe gives the Federal Reserve grounds to keep interest rates unchanged for the time being.

From a technical perspective, the EUR/USD pair has fallen below the crucial 200-day SMA and is heading toward the psychological 1.1600 level, and then toward the January low. Oscillators remain in negative territory, confirming the bearish outlook for the pair.

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