05.03.202600:56 Forex Analysis & Reviews: USD/CAD: Price Analysis and Forecast. High Oil Prices Strengthen the Canadian Dollar

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The USD/CAD pair is trading just above the 1.3650 level, where the 20-day SMA is located. Prices have remained within a two-week range, prompting market participants to exercise caution amid mixed fundamental signals.

The US dollar continues to show relative resilience amid stable inflows of capital into safe-haven assets, bolstered by heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Additionally, the dollar is supported by reduced market expectations regarding three interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve due to concerns that inflation may remain high longer than previously thought.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US dollar against a basket of major currencies, maintains a bullish tone despite today's pullback, remaining slightly below a three-month high, which creates a tailwind for the USD/CAD pair.

This factor stabilizes the Canadian currency, which is sensitive to commodity market dynamics, and limits the potential for further growth in the USD/CAD pair.

In a mixed fundamental backdrop, geopolitical risks remain the main driver.

From a technical perspective, the oscillators on the daily chart have not yet entered positive territory, but prices are trading above the 20-day SMA, leaving a chance for buyers. Daily resistance for the pair was encountered at the round level of 1.3700. If this level is surpassed, the next resistance will be the 50-day SMA, near the level of 1.3725. Support was found at the 20-day SMA, and if it fails to hold, prices could accelerate their decline toward the round level of 1.3600

Given the mixed fundamental and technical backdrop, market participants may prefer to wait for a more definitive buy signal before opening new long positions in USD/CAD.

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