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The test of the 1.1595 price level occurred when the MACD indicator had just begun moving downward from the zero mark, confirming a correct entry point for selling the euro. However, the pair declined by only 12 points.
The unexpected drop in retail sales volumes in the eurozone limited the euro's upward potential, which had been observed in the first half of the day. Many economists who had expected growth were surprised by such weak data. Clearly, this decline highlights growing concerns about a slowdown in the region's economic development.
Next, important statistical reports from the United States are expected. Of particular interest is the data on the number of Americans filing initial unemployment claims. This indicator is considered one of the most timely gauges of labor market health, and any deviation from forecasts could trigger increased market activity.
Data on changes in unit labor costs and labor productivity in the non-farm sector will also be released, but they are of little interest to traders and can largely be ignored. Most likely, trading will continue within the current channel, with a relatively high probability of a new bearish scenario for the euro.
As for the intraday strategy, I will mainly rely on the implementation of Scenario No. 1 and Scenario No. 2.
Buy Signal
Today, buying the euro is possible when the price reaches 1.1630 (green line on the chart), with a target of 1.1670. At 1.1670, I plan to exit the market and also open a short position in the opposite direction, expecting a 30–35 point move from the entry point. A strong rise in the euro today can be expected only if US statistics turn out weak.
Important: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero level and just beginning to rise from it.
Another plan is to buy the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1605 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This would limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a reversal upward. In this case, a rise toward 1.1630 and 1.1670 can be expected.
Sell Signal
I plan to sell the euro after the price reaches 1.1605 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1565, where I plan to exit the market and immediately open a buy position in the opposite direction (expecting a 20–25 point move from the level). Pressure on the pair may return if US data comes out strong.
Important: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero level and just beginning to decline.
Another plan is to sell the euro if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.1630 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This would limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a reversal downward. In this case, a decline toward 1.1605 and 1.1565 can be expected.
Chart Explanation
Important for Beginner Forex Traders
Beginner traders in the Forex market should make market entry decisions very carefully. Before the release of important fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations.
If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. Without stop orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use proper money management and trade with large volumes.
And remember: successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.
¡Los informes analíticos de InstaForex lo mantendrá bien informado de las tendencias del mercado! Al ser un cliente de InstaForex, se le proporciona una gran cantidad de servicios gratuitos para una operación eficiente.
