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The GBP/USD currency pair continues to maintain a downward trend on the 4-hour timeframe, and on Thursday, it held on for most of the day, trying not to drop further. Overall, the initial market shock has subsided, so we no longer see grounds for further declines driven solely by geopolitical factors. There are no other reasons for the dollar to grow. Instead, a new challenge is emerging—the energy crisis.
For the UK, this crisis has a fairly indirect connection, as British industry and consumers are, for the most part, adequately supplied with gas and oil. The much greater danger lies for the Eurozone. However, it should be understood that even if the British do not start freezing in winter due to a lack of gas for heating, and gasoline does not start costing £5 per liter, this does not mean that the rest of the world will not face energy problems, and prices worldwide will not rise due to increasing oil and gas costs. Prices in Europe will rise, and the UK will see the same.
Inflation in the UK has just dropped to 3%, giving hope last week of a reduction in the key rate. However, Donald Trump decided to start a war, so currently, the chances of a rate cut from the Fed and the Bank of England are zero. It's simple: both central banks expect inflation to start spiraling again due to the significant rise in fuel, gas, and oil prices. If this is the case, further easing of monetary policy is not only impractical but also dangerous.
Both central banks currently maintain their key rates at 3.75%. Thus, in this regard, the pound and the dollar are on equal footing. However, in our view, the British pound still has more promising prospects for 2026. Firstly, the daily and weekly timeframes show a preserved upward trend. Secondly, the dollar has been rising for the past month and a half for no apparent reason. Thirdly, today, information about the state of the labor market and unemployment will come from across the ocean.
Of course, the UK could also become involved in the war against Iran to avoid upsetting Trump. Events in the Middle East may provoke more than one escape from risk assets by investors. Therefore, one cannot be certain that the dollar will not continue to rise. However, we do not believe the market will react exclusively to geopolitical factors throughout 2026.
On the daily timeframe, the price has encountered the Senkou Span B line at 1.3286 and has struggled to stay below it for three consecutive days. Of course, if we see 200,000 Nonfarm Payrolls today and a third consecutive decline in the unemployment rate, a wave of euphoria will sweep over dollar enthusiasts, and tomorrow every expert will declare that there is no better "safe haven" than the dollar, and there never has been.
The average volatility of the GBP/USD pair over the last 5 trading days is 117 pips, which is considered "high." On Friday, March 6, we expect the pair to trade within a range bounded by 1.3201 and 1.3435. The upper channel of the linear regression is directed upward, indicating a trend recovery. The CCI indicator has once again entered oversold territory, signaling a potential end to the correction.
The GBP/USD pair has been in correction for a whole month now, but its long-term prospects have not changed. Trump's policies will continue to exert pressure on the US economy, so we do not expect the US currency to grow in 2026. Even its status as a "reserve currency" no longer plays a key role for traders. Thus, long positions targeting 1.3916 and higher remain relevant as long as the price is above the moving average. If the price is below the moving average, small short positions can be considered with a target of 1.3201 based on technical (correctional) grounds. In recent weeks, nearly all news and events have turned against the British pound, prolonging the correction.
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