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Stock indices closed with gains yesterday. The S&P 500 rose by 0.25%, the Nasdaq 100 added 0.47%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average strengthened by 0.10%.
The global equity advance continued today as investors looked through near-term geopolitical noise and hunted for signs of stability, even while the war in Iran continued to rattle energy markets and feed inflationary fears. Falling oil prices also supported demand for risk assets. Despite the ongoing tension in the Middle East, after President Trump's remarks yesterday about an imminent end to the conflict, investors refocused on the economic fundamentals due today. US inflation prints and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision will be the key drivers of market sentiment.
The MSCI All-Country World Index, one of the broadest gauges of global equities, rose by about 0.3%, marking its longest stretch of gains in more than a month. Asian markets jumped by roughly 1.6%, led by chipmakers such as Samsung Electronics, names perceived as less exposed to Middle East shocks. Futures on European equity indices also gained, suggesting that the rally may spread across regions.
US Treasury prices were firmer. A supporting factor was a 2.3% drop in Brent crude, which traded around $101/bbl. Oil eased after Iraq agreed to resume exports via Turkey — bypassing the Strait of Hormuz — and after intensified US efforts to reopen that key waterway.
As noted above, attention today will be squarely on the Federal Reserve, which is widely expected to hold interest rates steady and then lay out how it would respond if the war's consequences push its policy objectives in conflicting directions. Many traders have scaled back expectations for Fed easing this year. While no change is expected today, policymakers will help set the path for rate moves in the months ahead. Market participants will also scrutinize Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for clues on how the regulator views rising energy prices against signs of a cooling labor market.
As for the S&P 500 technical analysis, buyers' immediate task is to overcome the resistance level of $6,756. This would help the index gain renewed upside momentum and open the way to $6,769. Controlling $6,784 would further bolster the bullish case. On the downside, buyers should defend around $6,743. A break below that level would likely bring the trading instrument back down to $6,727 and could open the path to $6,711.
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