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The EUR/USD pair continued its upward movement on Tuesday after rebounding from the 127.2% corrective level at 1.1440, heading toward the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1577. A rebound from this level would favor the US dollar and lead to some decline toward 1.1440. A consolidation above 1.1577 would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.1696.
The wave situation on the hourly chart remains clear. The last completed upward wave broke the previous peak by only a few pips, while the latest downward wave broke the previous low. Thus, the trend currently remains "bearish." Donald Trump's actions in the Middle East have triggered large-scale military operations in the region involving about a dozen countries, which have supported—and continue to support—the US dollar as a safe-haven currency.
On Tuesday, economic reports once again had little significance for traders, and the slight decline of the dollar along with the retreat of bears may have been linked to a minor easing of tensions surrounding the Middle East war. According to insiders, Donald Trump is preparing to once again follow the TACO principle (Trump Always Chickens Out) in Iran. Very few experts believe that the US president will commit to a ground operation in the Middle East, as there are no guarantees of success. Such an operation would lead to heavy losses among US personnel and equipment, which could further damage Trump's already low approval ratings ahead of the midterm congressional elections. According to unconfirmed information, Trump wants to end the war in Iran since the objectives have not been achieved, though the White House leader will likely declare a complete victory for the US military. Thus, traders have, first, already priced in the conflict and the rise in energy prices, and second, for the first time in two weeks, there is a sense that no further escalation will occur. As the saying goes, there is no smoke without fire. Overall, Trump has dealt a significant blow to Iran's economy, military, and nuclear infrastructure. The conflict could now be concluded—but whether Iran itself will agree remains uncertain. In my view, the end of the conflict now depends on Tehran rather than Israel or the United States.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has reversed in favor of the euro and consolidated above the 100.0% Fibonacci level at 1.1474. Thus, the upward movement may continue toward the next corrective level of 76.4% at 1.1617. A consolidation below 1.1474 would increase the likelihood of further decline toward the next Fibonacci level of 127.2% at 1.1310. The descending trend channel continues to indicate full dominance by the bears. No emerging divergences are observed in any indicators.
Commitments of Traders (COT) Report:
During the last reporting week, professional traders closed 28,900 long positions and opened 2,454 short positions. The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" group remains bullish thanks to Donald Trump and his policies, but in recent weeks we have seen an active reduction in long positions. The total number of long positions held by speculators now stands at 266,000, while short positions amount to 160,000. The bulls still maintain a significant advantage, but they are rapidly losing ground.
Overall, in the long term, large players continue to view the euro with considerable confidence. Undoubtedly, various global developments—of which there has been no shortage in recent years—affect investors in different ways. In particular, market attention is now focused on the Middle East, where the war continues to escalate and expand geographically. Thus, in the near future, the euro and dollar exchange rate will depend not on Fed monetary policy or economic data, but on the war in Iran. And for now, the dollar is benefiting the most from this situation.
Economic calendar for the US and the Eurozone:
On March 18, the economic calendar contains five events, three of which could shift market focus from geopolitics back to economics. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Wednesday may be present, but mainly in the evening and at night.
EUR/USD forecast and trading advice:
Selling the pair was possible upon a close below 1.1577 with a target of 1.1440. The target has been reached. New selling opportunities may arise on a rebound from 1.1577 with a target of 1.1440. Buy positions could have opened on a rebound from 1.1440 with a target of 1.1577. These positions can still be held today. New buying opportunities may arise on a close above 1.1577 with a target of 1.1696.
Fibonacci levels are drawn from 1.1577–1.2082 on the hourly chart and from 1.1474–1.2082 on the 4-hour chart.
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