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Well, with great difficulty, the European currency has begun to recover. Just a few weeks ago, it was only a matter of a maximum three-wave correction, but then Donald Trump decided that the "Iranian issue" required immediate resolution and that Tehran would strike America any day now. Therefore, it was urgent to begin a military operation, which has now been ongoing for three weeks. As a result, the European currency has fallen to the 14 figure, and now the most it can hope for is a correction.
Formally, the EUR/USD instrument has already completed a three-wave correction, as shown on the charts. Therefore, the instrument's decline may resume very soon. Undoubtedly, the current correction looks extremely weak and unconvincing, but one must not forget about the news background. In particular, the geopolitics that increases demand for the American currency, if not daily, then every other day. Therefore, the wave layout may require a more convincing upward structure, but neither America nor Iran is likely to be concerned about that. Already on Monday, Trump may strike Iran again (this time targeting energy), triggering a new round of confrontation in the Middle East. In such circumstances, the strengthening of the dollar would be the most logical scenario.
Next week, business activity indices will be released in the European Union, and ECB President Christine Lagarde will give a speech. Lagarde last spoke on Thursday after the meeting, so it is unlikely we should expect any new statements from her. In my opinion, the ECB has done everything it could for the European currency. It has effectively announced an interest rate hike for April if the situation in the Middle East continues as it is now. At the same time, the Fed has been in a wait-and-see mode for a long time and is not considering raising rates for now. If this news background is not enough to drive the euro higher, then we can only wait for the conflict in the Middle East to be resolved...
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (bottom picture) but has started forming a downward segment in the short term. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, in the next week or two, my readers can expect an increase in quotes with targets around the levels 1.1568 and 1.1666, which correspond to 23.6% and 38.2% of the Fibonacci. Further movements of the instrument fully depend on events in the Middle East.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become very complex and difficult to read. Now we see a seven-wave downward structure on the charts, which is undoubtedly not that. Most likely, there is elongation or complication within one of the waves. However, this does not make the wave layout clearer. If the wave picture has once been complicated to an unreadable form, it can complicate several more times. Therefore, I believe it is best to rely on the wave layout of the EUR/USD instrument, which looks much clearer. Also, one should not forget about the geopolitical factor, which can send both instruments into a new decline at any moment. If that does not happen, the euro and the pound can expect an increase within the correction.
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