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On the hourly chart, the GBP/USD pair made a sharp reversal in favor of the pound on Monday and rose toward the resistance level of 1.3437–1.3465. A rebound from this zone would allow traders to expect a reversal in favor of the US dollar and a decline toward the support level of 1.3341–1.3352. A consolidation above the 1.3437–1.3465 level would increase the likelihood of further growth toward the 1.3526–1.3539 level.
The wave situation has started to shift to a "bullish" one. The last completed downward wave did not break the previous low, while the last upward wave exceeded the previous peak by only a few points. The news background for the pound has been weak in recent months, while geopolitics has given bears a full advantage in the market. The war in Iran remains the main reason for the strengthening of the US dollar, but this week the geopolitical backdrop has begun to change.
There was no significant news background on Monday; however, a speech by Donald Trump allowed the bulls to go on the offensive. At the moment, I cannot say that the bulls' advance is strong and confident, as the geopolitical situation over the past week has been quite unstable. The situation in the Middle East could shift in any direction at any moment. It is possible that direct negotiations between Tehran and Washington on resolving the military conflict may begin this week, but it is also possible that talks will fail before they even start. There are no guarantees that Iran will accept another package of ultimatums from Donald Trump, and Trump's desire to end the war is only the wish of the US president. Tehran may oppose it. Even if shelling in the region stops, it does not mean that the Strait of Hormuz will be immediately reopened, oil will start flowing to global markets, and prices will fall. Many oil refining and gas production facilities in the region have been taken out of operation, and it will take many months to restore them. Thus, in the near future, traders can at best expect a ceasefire from both sides. This would already be good for markets and bad for the dollar, but I still would not expect strong growth of the pound anytime soon.
On the 4-hour chart, the pair has consolidated above the descending trend channel, which so far does not mean much. The "bearish" trend may be over, but a new escalation in the Middle East could lead to a renewed bearish push toward the 38.2% retracement level of 1.3145. Consolidation above the 1.3369–1.3391 level allows traders to expect continued growth toward the 0.0% retracement level of 1.3786. No emerging divergences are observed on any indicators today.
Commitments of Traders (COT) report:
The sentiment of the "Non-commercial" trader category became less bearish over the last reporting week, although bears still fully control the initiative overall. The number of long positions held by speculators decreased by 4,977, while short positions decreased by 23,659. The gap between long and short positions is now effectively: 44,000 vs. 110,000. In recent weeks, bears have dominated, which raises no questions given the geopolitical situation. I still do not believe in a sustained bearish trend for the pound, but now everything will depend not on economic indicators, Trump's trade policy, or central bank monetary policy, but on the duration, scale, and consequences of the war in the Middle East.
Over the past year, the pound has looked like a safer currency compared to the dollar—more stable and with a clearer economic outlook. However, in recent months, first a correction began while maintaining a bullish trend, and then the conflict in the Middle East started escalating almost daily. Geopolitics remains the only reason for the strengthening of the US currency.
Economic calendar for the US and the UK:
On March 24, the economic calendar contains several notable entries. The impact of the news background on market sentiment on Tuesday is unlikely to be strong unless Trump makes additional important statements.
GBP/USD forecast and trader advice:
Selling the pair is possible today if there is a rebound on the hourly chart from the 1.3437–1.3465 level, with targets at 1.3341–1.3352 and 1.3214. Buying will become possible if the price closes above the 1.3437–1.3465 level, with a target of 1.3526–1.3539.
Fibonacci levels are constructed from 1.3341–1.3866 on the hourly chart and from 1.2104–1.3786 on the 4-hour chart.
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