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Bitcoin continues a kind of upward movement that is actually a correction and has lasted about a month and a half. On the daily timeframe, this is clearly visible. There is a liquidity pool below that the price is likely to visit with roughly 90% probability. On the 4-hour timeframe, you can see how slowly Bitcoin is rising, if it is rising at all. Thus, our view remains unchanged — the downtrend is not complete; the market is in a pause.
Meanwhile, Santiment analysts reported that large-player activity has fallen to 2023 lows. The number of daily Bitcoin transactions over $100,000 fell to about 6,400, while transactions above $1 million dropped to roughly 1,500 per day. Activity among large participants is therefore declining. What does this mean? Bullish analysts interpret this as accumulation by whales that could precede a new bull cycle. But there is a second, less popular interpretation: a plain decline in interest in Bitcoin along with other risk assets. A predictable downtrend began in Bitcoin six months ago. On the daily chart, it is clear that the price twice swept liquidity from recent highs and failed to regain bullish momentum. Six months is short for a trend, so we can say with confidence that a bearish trend remains in place.
In that case, activity wanes because the market is in a bearish trend. Despite attractive prices (Bitcoin has lost over 50% of its value), we do not see strong rebounds that would indicate widespread dip buying across trader categories. Rather the opposite: a recent liquidity sweep at a local high warns of a possible further decline in the flagship crypto. Besides, Bitcoin has plenty of downside targets.
Bitcoin continues to form a full?fledged downtrend. We still expect a decline toward $57,500 (the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the three-year uptrend), and there are currently no signs of a trend reversal. Even $57,500 no longer looks like the final stop. From POI areas, note only the nearest bearish FVG on the daily TF, which sits quite far from the price. On the 4-hour TF, Bitcoin's price action again shows all the hallmarks of a range. Down below, an obvious target remains — the liquidity pool below the daily-TF trendline.
A downtrend is in progress on the daily TF. The key sell pattern has been and remains the bearish order block on the weekly TF. As we warned, the move triggered by that signal can be strong and prolonged. Since that pattern formed, Ether has already fallen about 55% (roughly $2,500). In the near term, Ethereum may still see a weak upward correction. On the 4?hour TF, the coin has left the sideways channel, but a new trend has not begun. On Monday, a bullish FVG formed on the 4-hour TF, and the price reacted to it. The ideal strategy now is to wait for the bearish pattern on the daily TF to play out and then for a fall below the trendline.
CHOCH — change of character / break of the trend structure. Liquidity — liquidity, traders' Stop?Losses that market?makers use to build their positions. FVG — Fair Value Gap (area of price inefficiency). The price often moves quickly through such areas, indicating the absence of one side in the market. Later, the price tends to return and react to these zones. IFVG — Inverted Fair Value Gap. After a return to such a zone, the price does not react but impulsively breaks through and then tests it from the other side.
OB — Order Block. A candle on which a market?maker opened a position in order to harvest liquidity and then form their own position in the opposite direction.
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