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The wave structure on the 4-hour chart for EUR/USD has changed. There is still no talk of canceling the upward trend segment (lower chart), which began in January of last year; however, the wave structure of the trend now looks very ambiguous. In such situations, I always recommend switching to a lower timeframe (upper chart) and analyzing the simplest and smallest wave structures to make a short-term forecast, which is sufficient for opening trades. Wave structures can be very complex and imply multiple scenarios. The simplest approach is to trade based on the standard "five-three" pattern.
In the chart above, I can identify a classic five-wave impulse structure with an extended third wave. If this is indeed the case, then the formation of this structure has been completed, and we can expect a corrective sequence of at least three waves. Therefore, in the near term, one should expect a rise in the instrument's quotes, but within a correction relative to the last trend segment. For now, the latest wave structures fit poorly into the higher-level structure, but the situation should become clearer over time. In the near future, the euro may recover toward the 1.1666 and 1.1745 levels.
The EUR/USD pair declined by 20–30 basis points on Monday compared to the previous week's close. As we can see, for the fourth consecutive day, the euro has been losing 20–40 points per day, while the U.S. dollar has been gaining the same amount. At present, EUR/USD is at another crossroads. Either the current wave structure is correct and the news background will not break it, in which case an upward movement within wave c will begin, or the geopolitical background will once again push market participants to ignore wave, technical, and economic factors in favor of risk aversion.
What made Monday notable? Essentially, nothing. There were no significant economic releases in either the Eurozone or the United States, and it is doubtful that the important reports scheduled for this week will capture the market's attention. On Monday, Donald Trump once again delivered a series of contradictory statements. On the one hand, he continues to deploy troops to the region, openly declares his intention to gain control over Iranian oil, names thousands of targets for potential strikes, and threatens to destroy energy infrastructure and facilities. At the same time, he reports daily on ongoing and productive negotiations with certain individuals in Iran. It seems Iran itself may now be searching for these "certain individuals," and perhaps Sherlock Holmes should be brought in, as no one understands who these individuals are or what the fifteen demands—presented like a restaurant bill—actually entail.
Based on the EUR/USD analysis, I conclude that the pair remains within an upward trend segment (lower chart), while in the short term it has completed a downward wave sequence. Since the five-wave impulse structure has been completed, in the coming one to two weeks readers may expect a rise toward targets around 1.1666 and 1.1745, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% Fibonacci levels. Further movement of the pair will depend entirely on developments in the Middle East.
On the smaller timeframe, the entire upward trend segment is visible. The wave structure is not entirely standard, as corrective waves vary in size. For example, the higher-level wave 2 is smaller than the internal wave 2 within wave 3. However, such cases do occur. I would like to remind that it is better to identify clear structures on charts rather than strictly adhere to labeling every wave. The trend may reverse in the near future.
Key Principles of My Analysis:
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