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For the past month and a half, traders have been preoccupied with just one topic—the war in the Middle East. I remind you that military operations began on February 28, but the market realized war was inevitable about two weeks earlier. I am almost certain that Trump's plan was similar to the "Venezuelan operation," aiming for a swift blitzkrieg to achieve all objectives through the capitulation of the opponent. However, Iran, which has been in a state of war readiness for decades, was prepared for missile attacks on its cities and infrastructure. They were so prepared that they immediately retaliated with a series of strikes against oil and gas facilities in the region and by blocking the Strait of Hormuz. As a result, the events in Iran have taken the entire world hostage. Oil and gas prices skyrocketed, and Iran provided a wealth of food for thought to virtually every country on the planet.
Since Trump's blitzkrieg has failed for more than a week now, the American president has been doing everything possible to end the war by sending verbal signals to Tehran. It seems that the American president believes his words about ending the war and achieving a ceasefire should elicit genuine enthusiasm in Tehran and a willingness to sign any documents. However, in Tehran, they understand that America has conducted massive attacks on Iranian territory for the second time within less than a year. Therefore, nothing prevents Trump from launching new strikes in six months and withdrawing from a peace agreement just as he did from the nuclear deal.
As a result, Iran is in no rush to end the war, as it understands that it is currently dictating terms to the entire world. According to Tehran's leaders, the world must fully feel the consequences of US military aggression. Iran should receive reparations in some form. For example, Iran is now considering imposing a fee for passage through the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, oil prices have roughly doubled, which means Iran is simply earning much more money now from oil sales than before the military actions. Iranian oil exports have also increased by 1.5 times.
Thus, I believe that the funds to rebuild all the destroyed infrastructure will be found. This is precisely why Tehran is not eager to end the war. Furthermore, the Iranian leaders understand that the end of the war is only possible on American terms. Just today, it was announced that Tehran has once again rejected all of the US's conditional ceasefire offers. The situation is clear—either further escalation, to which Iran is prepared, which could have serious consequences for America, or peace on Iran's terms, not the US's.
Based on the analysis of EUR/USD, I conclude that the instrument remains within an upward segment of the trend (bottom chart) and, in the short term, has completed the formation of a downward wave set. Since the five-wave impulse structure is complete, my readers can expect an increase in quotes in the coming week or two, with targets around 1.1666 and 1.1745, corresponding to 38.2% and 50.0% on the Fibonacci scale. Further movements of the instrument will fully depend on events in the Middle East.
The wave picture for the GBP/USD instrument has become clearer over time, as I anticipated. Now we see a clear five-wave downward structure with an elongation in the third wave on the charts. If this is indeed the case, and geopolitics does not cause a new collapse of the instrument in the near future, we can expect the formation of at least a three-wave corrective structure within which the pound could rise to the 35-36 figures. Therefore, I believe now is a good time to buy.
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