01.04.202620:53 Forex Analysis & Reviews: GBP/USD. Price Analysis and Forecast

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The pound strengthened by more than 0.70% on Wednesday amid improved risk appetite following statements by U.S. President Donald Trump that the United States would "exit Iran fairly quickly." The GBP/USD pair rose above the psychological level of 1.3300 after rebounding from the intraday low of 1.3216, although the potential for further growth remains limited.

Market optimism increased following reports of a possible near-term end to the conflict in the Middle East, which supported global stock indices and weakened the U.S. dollar amid reduced demand for safe-haven assets. At the same time, mixed signals continue to create uncertainty: media reports suggest that Trump is also considering more aggressive scenarios, including issues related to Kharg Island, preventing markets from gaining confidence in a sustained de-escalation.

Additional pressure on the dollar came from U.S. data. The ISM Manufacturing PMI for March rose to 52.7 from 52.5, while the prices paid component surged to 78.3—the highest level in nearly four years—indicating increasing inflationary pressure. Earlier, U.S. retail sales for February increased by 0.6% month-over-month, and the ADP report showed a rise in private sector employment by 62K, reinforcing the view of a more resilient U.S. economy.

At the same time, speeches by Federal Reserve officials failed to significantly strengthen the dollar. Thomas Barkin noted that the energy shock is still perceived by households and businesses as temporary but warned about the risk of shifting inflation expectations, while Alberto Musalem stated that current policy remains appropriate and does not require immediate adjustments, although he acknowledged inflation risks related to the Middle East conflict.

For the pound, an additional limiting factor remains the weakness of the UK economy: the S&P Global UK Manufacturing PMI for March declined to 51, falling short of the preliminary estimate of 51.4. Against this backdrop, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey warned that markets are "getting ahead of themselves" in expecting rate hikes, highlighting the mixed outlook for the pound.

From a technical perspective, the pair has reached the 20-day SMA. A breakout above it would give bulls more strength for further growth, which is also suggested by oscillators that have not yet turned positive. However, the Relative Strength Index is close to 50. The key support level for the pair is at 1.3216—the intraday low. If this level and the psychological level of 1.3200 fail to hold, the pair may accelerate its decline toward the March low.

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