03.04.202606:36 Forex Analysis & Reviews: What To Pay Attention To On April 3? Analysis Of Fundamental Events For Beginners

Analysis Of Macroeconomic Reports:

Three macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday, all from the US. First and foremost, attention should be drawn to the NonFarm Payrolls report and the unemployment rate. Jerome Powell has repeatedly indicated to traders that the state of the economy and the labor market are not currently the Fed's top priorities, so the influence of these reports on the Monetary Committee's decisions is diminishing. However, their significance does not decrease as a result. The issue is that the market has been reacting solely to geopolitical factors and news for the past month and a half. We may see some reaction to the economic data from across the ocean today, but it could be weak or short-lived.

Analysis Of Fundamental Events:

There is absolutely nothing worth noting in terms of fundamental events for Friday. In fact, it may not even be necessary. The market continues to ignore all factors unrelated to geopolitics. Last night, there was another address by US President Donald Trump, who once again promised that the war in the Middle East, which he himself initiated, would come to an end very soon. Trump also stated that strikes against Iran may continue for another two to three weeks to ultimately paralyze the production of ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons. The president made it clear that America is not interested in unblocking the Strait of Hormuz and that those countries reliant on it for oil transportation should handle that matter. At the same time, Trump considers the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz a condition for a truce with Iran. There remain many contradictions. The conflict in the Middle East is unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. Iran continues to deny the existence of any direct negotiations.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may trade in either direction, as the market continues to react solely to geopolitical news that is unpredictable. The euro can be traded today in the range of 1.1527-1.1531, while the British pound can be traded in the range of 1.3203-1.3212. We still do not see grounds for strong, sustained growth in the US currency (considering all factors, not just geopolitics), but in the near future, geopolitics will remain the key factor in the currency market.

Key Principles of the Trading System:

1. The strength of the signal is determined by the time it took to form the signal (bounce or level breakthrough). The shorter the time, the stronger the signal.
2. If two or more trades were opened around any level based on false signals, all subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
3. In a range, any pair can generate a lot of false signals or may not generate them at all. Technical levels may be ignored.
4. On the hourly timeframe, it is advisable to trade signals from the MACD indicator only when there is good volatility and a trend that is confirmed by a trendline or trend channel.
5. If two levels are located too close together (5-20 pips apart), they should be considered a support or resistance area.
6. After moving 15 pips in the correct direction, a Stop Loss should be set to breakeven.

What to Look for on the Charts:

Price levels of support and resistance are levels that serve as targets when opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around them.

Red lines represent channels or trend lines that show the current trend and indicate the direction in which it is preferable to trade now.

The MACD indicator (14,22,3) – the histogram and the signal line – is a supporting indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.

Important speeches and reports (always included in the news calendar) can significantly affect the movement of the currency pair. Therefore, during their release, trading should be done with utmost caution, or traders should exit the market to avoid sharp price reversals against the previous movement.

Beginning traders in the forex market should remember that not every trade can be profitable. Developing a clear strategy and effective money management are the keys to long-term trading success.