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Despite a slight price decline, gold is set to close with gains for the third consecutive week, as hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the war in Iran and sustained central bank purchases outweigh ongoing inflation risks.
Today, the price of gold stabilized at around $4,765 per ounce, up nearly 2% for the week. With key unresolved issues related to the Middle Eastern conflict, attention is shifting to negotiations in Islamabad this weekend, where a U.S. delegation led by Vice President Jay Dee Vance is scheduled to meet with Iranian officials. Traders will also be watching for the U.S. inflation report, which will be released later on Friday.
Yesterday, U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he is optimistic about reaching an agreement to end the six-week conflict, but later threatened Tehran over its plans to charge fees for vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.
Since the start of the war in late February this year, the precious metal has lost nearly 10%, and its appeal as a safe haven has diminished as some investors seek to cover losses in other areas. The energy supply shock caused by the conflict has also heightened inflation risks, prompting traders to bet that central banks will postpone rate cuts or even raise them. This creates obstacles for non-yielding gold, which benefits when borrowing costs are lower.
However, the reduction in macroeconomic uncertainty, spurred by the prospect of resolving the conflict in the Middle East, along with structural concerns about the sustainability of fiscal policy and U.S. national debt, continues to encourage investors to increase their gold holdings as a key diversification tool.
Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to overcome the nearest resistance at $4,771. This will allow them to target $4,835, above which it will be quite difficult to break through. The furthest target will be the $4,893 area. If gold prices fall, bears will attempt to take control at $4,708. If they succeed, breaking this range will deal a serious blow to the bulls' positions, pushing gold down to a low of $4,647 with the potential to reach $4,591.
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