13.04.202609:57 Forex Analysis & Reviews: US Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz May Lead to a New Surge in Oil Prices

The price of oil has risen by more than 10% over the past day. This is mainly due to the failed negotiations between the US and Iran and further steps taken by Trump to pressure the Islamic country. It is evident that oil prices will be significantly higher than current levels if the US implements the planned naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

Yesterday, Donald Trump announced the introduction of a maritime blockade of Iran starting April 13. This decision, made amid heightened tensions in the Middle East following the collapse of international peace negotiations, is aimed at maximizing pressure on Tehran. The primary goal of the blockade is to deprive Iran of the ability to export oil, which is meant to severely undermine its economy and weaken its influence in the region.

The imposed restrictions affect all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports. This measure is unprecedented in scale and is designed to cut off virtually all channels for oil revenue into the country's budget. However, it is worth noting that passage through the Strait of Hormuz for ships heading to other countries will reportedly not be restricted. This is likely designed to minimize risks to international trade and avoid escalation of conflict with other regional players.

Control over the enforcement of the maritime blockade will be entrusted to the US Central Command. This unit already has significant experience conducting naval operations in the Gulf and possesses the necessary forces and means to enforce the established restrictions. This step by Washington underscores its determination to achieve its objectives and its willingness to use all available tools to reach the desired political outcome.

Meanwhile, as I noted above, the price of Brent crude oil surged above $103 per barrel on Monday. However, an 8% increase does not fully reflect what could happen if the US indeed imposes the ban. If this does occur, according to a number of economists, a fair price for oil could be around $140 to $150, as the US blockade could turn a regional conflict into a global one, leading to a reduction in supply of up to 12 million barrels per day. Currently, traders consider the blockade on both sides of the strait to be too extreme, which is why the price reaction has remained relatively calm during the Asian session.

Regarding the current technical picture for oil, buyers need to reclaim the nearest resistance at $106.83. This will allow them to target $113.36, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. A further target would be the $118.88 area. In the event of a drop in oil prices, bears will attempt to gain control over $100.40. If they succeed, breaking through this range could deliver a serious blow to bullish positions and push oil down to a low of $92.54, with the potential to reach $86.67.