14.04.202609:10 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Oil Prices Slightly Decrease

Yesterday, oil prices declined slightly, driven by hints of a possible resumption of peace talks between Washington and Tehran. This news emerged amid the tense situation following the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Geopolitical uncertainty should have pushed prices up; however, signals about diplomatic efforts prompted adjustments.

The price of the benchmark Brent crude oil fell below the psychologically important $ 99-per-barrel mark. A similar trend was observed with West Texas Intermediate, whose price approached $97 per barrel. This shift in price dynamics suggests that the market is assessing the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution to the conflict as a factor that could ease tensions in one of the key global oil-producing regions.

The decline in prices, despite the ongoing blockade of the strait, indicates that investors may be betting on a quick compromise. The potential resumption of negotiations on April 16 could lead to a de-escalation of the conflict and, consequently, a normalization of oil supplies to the global market. This, in turn, could have a restraining effect on price levels, as reflected in yesterday's trading.

According to several media reports, both sides are negotiating another in-person meeting to secure a longer ceasefire. The goal is to arrange this before the end of the two-week pause in hostilities declared on April 7.

U.S. President Donald Trump stated yesterday that Tehran contacted him, telling reporters, "This morning the right people, the necessary people, called us, and they want to make a deal." Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian confirmed that the country is ready to continue peace negotiations solely within the framework of international law and norms.

In the meantime, the oil market remains in shock, shaken by the ongoing war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran, which has now lasted for seven weeks. On Monday, the U.S. raised the stakes by imposing a blockade on vessels bound for Iranian ports in the Persian Gulf or coastal areas; however, this did not lead to a sharp spike in oil prices, which was quite surprising.

Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia continues to insist that the U.S. lift the blockade of the strait and return to the negotiating table.

Today, the International Energy Agency is expected to publish its monthly market report, which will shed light on the dynamics of demand and supply this year and in 2027. On Monday, IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol stated that oil prices do not yet reflect the severity of the supply crisis, but this will change soon.

Regarding the current technical picture of oil, buyers need to break the nearest resistance at $100.40. This will allow targeting $106.83, above which it will be fairly challenging to break through. The furthest target will be the $113.36 area. Should oil prices fall, bears will attempt to take control of $92.54. If successful, this breakout could deal a significant blow to the bulls' positions and push oil down to a low of $86.67, with a potential to reach $81.38.