15.04.202609:00 Forex Analysis & Reviews: Gold Returns to the Level of $4,900

Yesterday marked a positive dynamic for the gold market, driven by rising optimism about resolving the current geopolitical tension between the U.S. and Iran. The efforts of both sides to organize a second round of peace talks in the coming days significantly impacted investor sentiment. This diplomatic breakthrough has alleviated concerns about a potential inflationary shock to energy supplies that previously pressured markets and pushed precious metal prices higher.

Gold demonstrated resilience, maintaining its growth and stabilizing around $4,850 per ounce. This figure followed a notable 0.6% rise recorded the day before. The previous trading session also recorded significant growth, exceeding 2%, in response to the initial steps taken by Washington and Tehran toward dialogue. Investors perceived these signals as a substantial reduction in risks, which traditionally stimulates demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

The desire of both countries to find a diplomatic solution to the conflict before the ceasefire agreement expires next week creates a favorable backdrop for financial markets.

The recent decline in energy prices has eased some of the inflationary pressure that has weighed on the precious metal since the start of the war more than six weeks ago. Concerns over rising consumer prices have led traders to bet that central banks will keep interest rates at previous levels longer or even raise them, posing obstacles for non-yielding gold. The price of gold has fallen about 8% since the beginning of the conflict in the Middle East, and the liquidity shortage in the early weeks of hostilities forced investors to sell assets and cover losses elsewhere.

Exacerbating uncertainty about global trade, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated yesterday that Trump's tariffs could be reinstated by July to the levels in effect before the Supreme Court canceled many of them. The widespread tariffs announced by the President last year became a key factor in driving gold prices to successive record levels.

Meanwhile, the situation in the Middle East remains unstable as the standoff around the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime hub linking the Persian Gulf to global markets, continues. The U.S. maintains a naval blockade to limit Iranian oil exports, while Tehran is considering a short-term suspension of shipments.

Regarding the current technical picture of gold, buyers need to break the nearest resistance at $4,835. This will allow them to target $4,893, above which it will be quite challenging to break through. The furthest target will be around $4,913. In the event of a decline in gold, bears will attempt to take control of $4,771. If successful, breaking through this range will deal a serious blow to bulls' positions and push gold down to a low of $4,708, with a potential decline to $4,647.