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On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair paused its advance, consolidating around 1.3570 amid weakening optimism about the resumption of U.S.-Iranian negotiations. At the same time, the U.S. stock market continues to show upward momentum, and the U.S. dollar appears to have reached a local bottom after dropping to a six-week low.
The British pound is consolidating amid the Federal Reserve's neutral stance, which offsets the weakening of the American currency. Investors' moderate optimism reduces the dollar's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Positive reactions on Wall Street greeted the news of the ceasefire extension between the U.S. and Iran for several more weeks. U.S. President Donald Trump stated that the conflict with Iran is coming to an end, emphasizing that "amazing days are ahead," which may indicate the parties are close to an agreement.
According to The Washington Post, the Pentagon has deployed additional military forces to the Middle East. At the same time, the Pakistani military confirmed that Marshal Asim Munir would visit Tehran to resolve disputes between the two countries.
U.S. reports on export and import prices; however, the markets hardly reacted to their publication. Investors' focus remains on Federal Reserve representatives. Beth Hammack from the Cleveland branch noted that the base rate is likely to remain at current levels "for quite some time," emphasizing the lack of need for immediate changes in monetary policy.
Expectations that the Fed will keep the rate unchanged contrast with the Bank of England's policy, which is expected to tighten monetary conditions by about 38 basis points by the end of the year. This difference in interest rates increases the pound's appeal and creates conditions for further growth in the GBP/USD pair.
The hawkish stance of the BoE is strengthened against the backdrop of the UK's dependence on imported natural gas, the price of which has risen by nearly 40%. However, the restoration of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz may prompt investors to lock in some profits and reduce long positions in the pound.
Earlier, BoE Monetary Policy Committee member Megan Greene, known for her hawkish stance even before the conflict with Iran began, noted that inflationary pressures remain. According to her, the impact of the energy shock on the British economy may only manifest itself in a few months due to the sharp rise in energy costs.
In the near future, market participants will focus on the upcoming U.K. GDP data, where a slight improvement is anticipated from 0% to 0.1% growth in February. Reports on initial jobless claims for the week ending April 11, as well as speeches by Fed representatives, are expected in the U.S.
From a technical perspective, oscillators are positive. The pair is consolidating near the previous day's high, trading above the key moving averages. All of this confirms the bullish sentiment.
The table below shows the dynamics of the British pound's percentage change against key currencies, highlighting its strengthening against the Swiss franc.
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