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Yesterday, equity indices closed higher. The S&P 500 rose by 0.26%, while the Nasdaq 100 strengthened by 0.36%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.24%.
The record run seen in global equity markets slowed, stalling across Asian venues. Investors, looking to minimize risk ahead of the coming weekend, began to trim positions. The main reason for the cautious stance was uncertainty over progress on extending the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The uncertainty around those geopolitical negotiations is materially influencing market sentiment, pushing participants to lock in profits and step back from potential risks.
Against that backdrop, Asian indices showed mixed dynamics. Traders are watching any diplomatic news that could affect regional stability and, therefore, global markets. The lack of clear signals on the ceasefire's next steps is prompting more conservative portfolio management.
While yesterday was marked by optimism, caution dominates today. The decision by investors to reduce positions suggests that short-term upside may be limited until a clearer picture on geopolitics emerges. Next week should bring more decisive trends once the results or next steps of the talks are known.
The MSCI All Country World Index, the broadest barometer of global equities, fell by 0.1% after a 10-day rally that pushed it to a record high on Thursday. Although Wall Street indices also closed at record levels, momentum in Asia softened as traders focused on progress in talks intended to preserve the US–Iran ceasefire, which expires next week.
Brent crude dipped by 1.3% to $98.10 per barrel after US President Donald Trump expressed optimism about securing a lasting ceasefire with Iran. Gold gained modestly to around $4,800 an ounce, while Treasuries and the US dollar were largely unchanged, reflecting a cautious end to the week.
As noted above, investors are awaiting progress in talks that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease oil shipments, and relieve economic pressure after the sharp rise in oil prices since the conflict began in late February.
According to AT Global Markets, markets are entering the final session of the week at key technical and psychological levels and remain short on confidence as traders await clearer signals from the Middle East.
Yesterday, Trump again asserted, without providing evidence, that Iran had agreed to concessions it had long resisted, including abandoning nuclear-weapons ambitions and handing over nuclear material. According to the president, the deal would also include opening the Strait of Hormuz. However, Tehran has not confirmed such concessions.
Trump also announced a 10?day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. In his Thursday comments, he did not mention Hezbollah. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed in a video address that he had agreed to a truce.
As for the S&P 500 technical picture, the primary task for buyers today is to overcome the nearest resistance level of $7,049. That would help the index gain upside momentum and could pave the way for a thrust to $7,066. Equally a priority for bulls is to hold control above $7,087, which would strengthen buyers' positions. In the event of a downside move amid reduced risk appetite, buyers must assert themselves near $7,033. A break below that level would quickly push the instrument back to $7,013 and could open the way to $6,993.
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